How Much Did Managerial Decisions Matter in Mariners’ Losses to Padres?

Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson looks on during the game between the Rangers and the Mariners at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Top of the sixth, Mariners down by three, bases loaded, one out. A white-hot Luke Raley was set to come to the plate, having had eight hits in his last 14 at-bats, but the Padres replaced struggling reliever Bradgley Rodriguez with powerhouse lefty Adrián Morejón. Mariners manager Dan Wilson played the match-ups and brought in the right-handed Connor Joe.

Joe struck out on three pitches. The Mariners weren’t able to score again in the game and lost 5-2 in the end, falling to the business end of the Padres’ heavy-hitting bullpen and losing their eighth straight road game. 

Should Raley have stayed in the game? Well, perhaps a less extremely platoony lefty should have stayed in as a proverbial “hot hand”, but Raley is one of the most platoony hitters in the game. His career .247/.335/.463 slash line against right-handers is offset by his .182/.249/.284 slash line against left-handers. Hot or not, he simply does not hit against left-handers, which is why the team signed Rob Refsnyder - but Refsnyder was out on paternity leave, leaving the M’s with four right-handed options: Leo Rivas, Mitch Garver, Connor Joe, and Patrick Wisdom. 

Of the four, Mitch Garver would have probably been the better hitter, but Joe was the only one who could play right field, so Joe was the one who went in the game. The M’s could have brought Garver in and made a defensive replacement - or brought Rivas in and moved third baseman Brendan Donovan to right - but there really weren’t a whole lot of good options. 

Perhaps the team should have simply left Raley in the game so that he could hit against a right-hander later in the game. It was the sixth inning after all. But it raises the question: how much do these decisions matter? With a team playing as badly as the Mariners right now, there isn’t a lot of room for error. But though there were arguably better options, it probably wouldn’t have changed the inability of the offense to get anything going before or after in the game.

Wilson’s decision to bring in Jose A. Ferrer to try save Andrés Muñoz’ bacon on Wednesday was a bit more disagreeable. The M’s had Matt Brash, who had better swing and miss stuff, available to come in the game, but went with Ferrer instead due to the lefty-lefty matchup against Jackson Merrill. With runners on first and second, it wasn’t like they needed to prevent the potential Brash walk.

But again - would it have mattered? There was plenty else that went wrong with the at-bat, never mind the inning. A better play by Randy Arozarena in left field could have prevented the winning run from scoring. Had Ferrer located his 2-2 sinker better (or thrown a different pitch altogether), perhaps Merrill would have hit it softly to someone or struck out to end the game. Had Muñoz not bizarrely lost control of his slider in the beginning of the season, the M’s wouldn’t have been in that predicament to begin with.

And all throughout the series, the Padres seemed to have a beat on Cal Raleigh’s sequencing tendencies anyway. Who’s to say Merrill wouldn’t have got a beat on what Brash would have done and tied the game up or won regardless.

Sometimes, these decisions look worse or better based on what actually happened, not what was most likely to happen going into those situations. That’s where the critique of the process makes more sense. Putting in Brash instead of Ferrer probably would have had a better chance of success. As for Raley, keeping him in and putting Joe in his stead would probably have been roughly equal, chance-wise, but there were better options available in Garver, Wisdom, or Rivas. 

At a certain point, however, these what-if games cease to mean much. The Mariners have already lost 12 games in the 2026 season, and for putting their best selves on the field, worrying about spilt milk won’t help them a whit for the remaining 142 contests. 

For Wilson, there is a lesson of trusting the better player over the platoon advantage some of the time - were it Dominic Canzone on a lightning tear, a platoon play would have been less warranted, and Brash probably would have had the edge over Ferrer in that Wednesday situation - but the general tendency to leave a struggling pitcher in an inning for too long is the main issue with his managerial strategy. It’s a balancing act, and showing confidence in pitchers has distinct benefits, but an over-long leash was evident Muñoz slipped and fell that day.

But ultimately, the M’s will have to have a short memory and look to pounce on their next opponents, the Texas Rangers, in their three-game series at home.