How Can Playoff-Bound Seahawks Clinch No. 1 Seed in Week 17?

Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner (88) celebrates with fans after a win against the Los Angeles Rams in overtime at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

With only one game left on the Week 16 slate, the Seattle Seahawks already have a playoff berth locked up after a thrilling 38-37 overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football.

But currently holding the top seed in the NFC with a sterling 12-3 record, the Seahawks have their sights on far more than simply making the postseason. Starting on Monday night, a few dominos falling their way over the next week could cement the lone bye in the conference as early as next Sunday.

Enjoying a mini bye after playing two games in five days, Seattle will be rooting hard for 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers and Indianapolis to upset San Francisco at Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday Night Football. Helping the Colts’ cause, the team activated star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner from injured reserve, bolstering their defensive front at the right time to deal with Christian McCaffrey and a strong 49ers run game.

If the 49ers can’t get the job done on the road in prime time and fall victim to the upset card, the Seahawks will draw closer to an NFC West title and improve their odds at securing the No. 1 seed. But away from winning their own game against the Panthers in Charlotte, they will need additional help on Saturday and Sunday to lock up the bye before the season finale.

Still only one game ahead of the Rams after defeating their rivals at Lumen Field five days ago, Seattle would need Atlanta to pull off a massive upset over Los Angeles to knock Sean McVay’s club out of the hunt for the bye. Ironically, after cheering for the 49ers to lose in Indianapolis, the Seahawks would have to briefly change their allegiance hoping Kyle Shanahan’s squad defeats the Bears as well, sending Chicago to a fifth loss.

Under that scenario, or the far less likely scenario where San Francisco and/or Los Angeles tie this weekend, Seattle would be two full games ahead of every other team in the NFC playoff race with one game to go, making a Week 18 road trip to Santa Clara irrelevant with them clinching the top spot early. That would be ideal for Macdonald to sit many of his starters in the finale as a means for avoiding injuries before the postseason kicks off.

On the flip side, if the 49ers win on Monday night, it won’t be possible for the Seahawks to claim the top seed regardless of what happens in the Rams/Falcons or 49ers/Bears games next weekend. Both of their rivals losing next weekend coupled with a win in Carolina would, however, clinch the franchise’s first NFC West title since 2020.

But Seattle would still have work left to do to earn a bye, as Chicago would be one loss behind in the standings with a chance to leapfrog to the top seed by defeating Detroit in Week 18. Even if the 49ers would have nothing to play for beyond securing a desired wild card seed, the rematch at Levis Stadium would carry immense weight for Macdonald’s squad, all but ensuring that starters would play with the No. 1 spot hanging in the balance.

All of these scenarios become moot if the Seahawks don’t take care of business against the Panthers, who can clinch the NFC South with a Week 17 win and a Buccaneers loss. Dropping to 12-4 would not eliminate the team from still earning the top seed, but the path would be much tougher with them no longer controlling their own destiny, as they would need the Bears, Rams, and 49ers to each lose a game, with the latter needing to lose to the Seahawks themselves in Week 18 if they win their next two contests.

If Seattle goes 1-1 in the final two weeks of the season and Los Angeles wins out, the Rams would be the NFC West champions and/or No. 1 seed, unfortunately holding all of the key tiebreakers. Losing to the 49ers in the season finale would drop the Seahawks to 3-3 in the division, while the Rams defeating the Cardinals would improve their divisional record to 4-2. Losing to the Panthers would give the Seahawks a worse record against common opponents compared to the Rams, again dropping them down to a wild card.

Considering how complicated tiebreakers can be, the Seahawks best bet would be to win in Week 17 and see how the dominos fall around them, keeping fingers crossed both of their NFC West rivals slip up at minimum. And if they still haven’t clinched the division and/or the top seed, the season finale becomes the biggest game of the season, offering an opportunity to amend one of their few losses this year way back in Week 1 when the 49ers won at Lumen Field.