Winning Fixes Everything: Mariners Enter June in Excellent Shape

Rarely does a 2 ½ game lead seem so wide. Yet with the way the Mariners are playing and the roster they have, there is a very real possibility that the third month of the season cements them as clear AL West leaders. They do, after all, play in the game’s weakest division this year.

FanGraphs’ projections are often seen as the gold standard for playoff chances, often given without comparison as the stone cold definitive odds. According to FanGraphs’ default projections, the M’s have a 67.7% chance to win the division. 

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA has been even more bullish on the M’s from the jump, and their current figure is 78.9%. Even models that weight games played more heavily than preseason projections have the M’s at a greater than 50/50 chance to keep the crown: Neil Paine’s Elo model gives Seattle a 57.7% chance to win the West while FanGraphs’ season-to-date projections give the M’s a 56.3% chance.

But the thing about streaks is that they end. After all, this is a game where a team can throw eight no-hit innings and lose 13-8. Where do the M’s need to see improvement in June, and what has to happen to keep their hot players going?