Analysis: Five Thoughts on Mariners Extending Colt Emerson

News broke early Tuesday morning that the Seattle Mariners agreed to an eight-year, $95 million contract extension with 20-year-old top prospect Colt Emerson (MLB Pipeline’s No. 7 overall prospect and the team’s No. 1). It includes an $8 million signing bonus, a ninth-year club option (valued around $25 million), escalators that could push the total value north of $130 million, and a full no-trade clause.

A deal this big for a player this young - and one who has yet to make his MLB debut at that - always brings eyeballs. Diving into the surprising extension, what stands out for Emerson and the Mariners? Five thoughts:

This is a risk for BOTH sides

This is the largest contract handed out to a player who has yet to play a single inning in the major leagues. That statement alone implies the risks on the Seattle Mariners’ side. Emerson could blow his knee out tomorrow (I didn’t even want to put that out in the universe), and the Mariners would still owe him that money. Even if he doesn’t play an inning for the Mariners ever, that’s still his money either way. Or, he could end up being simply a below average big leaguer as Jarred Kelenic did. We see it all the time with star prospects flaming out and failing to meet expectations.