Analysis: Breaking Down Seahawks Playoff Scenarios Heading Into Week 18

Seattle Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen (27) reacts against the Carolina Panthers during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

On the heels of a 27-10 road win over the Carolina Panthers, the Seattle Seahawks have already tied their franchise record for wins in a season and remain in the driver seat with a looming rematch against the San Francisco 49ers set to decide who wins the NFC West and earns the No. 1 seed in the postseason.

Earning the coveted bye obviously stands out as the desired outcome for 12s everywhere, especially going against Seattle’s most hated rival with a chance at redemption after coming up a yard short the last time these two squads played in an unofficial division title game back in 2019. But losing in Santa Clara would drop Mike Macdonald’s team down to a wild card and the seed would depend on a few other variables in regard to where they would be traveling for the wild card round.

Looking towards a much-anticipated, high stakes season finale, here’s a look at the three possible playoff scenarios for the Seahawks heading into Week 18:

Scenario 1: Seahawks defeat 49ers, clinch NFC West and No. 1 seed

In control of their own destiny, the Seahawks won’t have to worry about any other games in the final week if they simply takes care of business in Santa Clara. A victory would not only set a new franchise single-season record with 14 wins, but it would ensure that the playoffs run through the Emerald City by securing the NFC’s lone bye and locking up home field advantage at Lumen Field. Based on prior history, that would be a massive development for the Seahawks, who have earned the top seed three previous times in team history and advanced to the Super Bowl each time, including back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014.

In a less important but still interesting add-on that would put a cherry on top off getting a week off before hosting the Divisional Round against the lowest remaining seed, beating the 49ers would prevent the division rivals from potentially being able to play three straight games at Levis Stadium, which will be hosting the Super Bowl in February.

Scenario 2: Seahawks lose to 49ers, Rams win final two games

Though the Rams have been eliminated from NFC West title consideration before even playing their Week 17 game against the Falcons, they still carry a significant piece of the puzzle when it comes to playoff seeding. Winning out would improve their record to 13-4 and regardless of who loses on Saturday night in Santa Clara, they would receive a higher seed than the Seahawks or 49ers in the wild card round. The 49ers would have five losses if they fall at home, obviously making them the sixth seed, while the Seahawks would hold the lower seed because of a worse divisional record (3-3) if they lose on Saturday.

Under this scenario, Seattle would hit the road to face the defending Super Bowl champions in Philadelphia, and while the Eagles have taken their lumps over the course of the season and regressed substantially on offense compared to a year ago, that championship pedigree coupled with home field advantage would be a less than ideal draw to open the postseason. There’s also the slim possibility Chicago loses to Detroit and Philadelphia leap frogs into the No. 2 seed, setting up a road date to windy Soldier Field.

Scenario 3: Seahawks lose to 49ers, Rams lose one more game

Given the soft landing with games against the lowly Falcons and Cardinals, this feels like the least likely outcome, at least on paper. The Rams will be heavily favored in both contests and as long as they play all of their starters with eyes on getting the highest seed, they should win out. Doing so would grant them the fifth seed and a rematch with either the Panthers or Buccaneers on the road, depending on who wins the de facto NFC South title game on Saturday afternoon. Neither of those teams will have more than nine wins and if Tampa Bay hosts in the wild card round, it would do so with a losing record at 8-9.

But the NFL has a way of not always sticking to chalk this time of year and while losing in Glendale in Week 18 would be an absolute stunner, the disappointment of not having a chance to win the NFC West could have a hangover effect on the Rams on Monday night. Atlanta has enough talent to keep things interesting and if Kirk Cousins and company pull the upset, Los Angeles will be 12-5 at best, locking Sean McVay’s squad into the sixth seed with Seattle traveling to Charlotte or Tampa Bay as the fifth seed instead. At that point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rams just rest their starters in the final against the Cardinals with nothing to play for seeding wise.