Analysis: Where Could Kraken Regress After Hot Start?
The Seattle Kraken have started out hot, but there are telltale signs that suggest they are being outplayed by their opponents.
The Seattle Kraken are 5-3-1 and third in the Pacific Division to start the season, exceeding low expectations so far with a few clunkers sprinkled in.
It's been a dream start for the franchise in many ways. 20-year-old Berkly Catton has become an offensive force, while Seattle's veteran forwards have put up great numbers. The defense and goaltending have done enough to keep the Kraken in most of their games.
But, in reality, some of Seattle's success can be attributed to luck.
"PDO" is the sum of a team's on-ice save-percentage and on-ice shooting-percentage. Generally, the stat is a good insight into a team's luck and natural variance with team's above 1.000 having "good luck." Seattle has a 1.054, fourth in the NHL. The other teams making up the top-five all made the playoffs last season.
Why might Seattle's hot start be doomed for regression?
Uncharacteristically High Shooting Percentages
Whether it's from the shortened preseason or NHL scoring growing gradually the last few seasons: shooting percentages are up and save percentages are down. League-average shooting was at 11.1% last season, and the Kraken were just below that mark.
The average this season is 11.3% and Seattle is at 14.3%. Fourth line center Frederick Gaudreau is leading the team with five goals and is scoring on over 45% of his shots. That's not sustainable for a player whose averaged 11.3% throughout his career.
