Analysis: Where Mariners’ Farm System Ranks and What Comes Next
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Seattle Mariners outfielder Lazaro Montes poses for a portrait during media day at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images [/caption]
As the Seattle Mariners attempt to claw their way back into playoff contention, it can be easy to focus on the letdowns of the major league club. The organization has plenty of other reasons to be optimistic, however, with a talent-rich farm system that would be the envy of most teams.
When Seattle traded Luis Castillo to the Chicago White Sox, it was initially billed as a salary dump and a way to reduce the logjam of starters in the rotation. The Mariners acquired Seranthony Domínguez, who slots in as a middle-relief option. Seattle also received prospect Boston Smith, who has been mashing with six home runs in his first 11 games. The catcher adds to an already impressive minor league system.
Seattle also traded for outfielder Taylor Ward but gave up only three relievers in return, sparking discontent from a fan base that wanted the M’s to go all-in. Not wanting to subtract from an already robust farm system, Jerry Dipoto and company decided to buy on the cheap to keep their prospect capital flush, with the hope that their two minor trades would be enough to push the middling Mariners into the playoffs.
Whether or not Dipoto’s gamble pays off remains to be seen. Either way, this organization has the most talent it has ever had. From the Dominican Summer League team all the way up to the major league club, this franchise is oozing with talent.
Let’s check in on Seattle’s farm system now that a few weeks have passed since the trade deadline:
Rankings
MLB.com
MLB.com just released its updated Top 100 and farm system rankings. Seattle checked in at No. 9 with six players in the Top 100. Interestingly enough, that is tied for the most in baseball. The Mariners also have the second-highest-ranked farm system when accounting only for players in the Top 100, trailing the World Series favorite Dodgers.
Kade Anderson, LHP (No. 5); Ryan Sloan, RHP (No. 8); Michael Arroyo, OF/2B (No. 45); Felnin Celesten, SS (No. 50); Lazaro Montes, OF (No. 56); Jonny Farmelo, OF (No. 73).
Bleacher Report
Seattle checks in at No. 2 in Bleacher Report’s latest farm system rankings. Both Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan are seen as potential future superstars by its evaluators, a rare status. Bleacher Report is also the only outlet that included this year’s first-round draft pick, Ace Reese.
Kade Anderson, LHP (No. 6); Ryan Sloan, RHP (No. 15); Lazaro Montes, OF (No. 26); Jonny Farmelo, OF (No. 70); Felnin Celesten, SS (No. 77); Ace Reese, 3B (No. 90); Michael Arroyo, OF/2B (No. 91).
FanGraphs
The Mariners appear to have a more middling minor league system at FanGraphs, coming in at No. 14 according to its evaluators. However, they do have the highest average value per prospect, while also having the third-fewest total number of major league-caliber prospects at 31.
Kade Anderson, LHP (No. 3); Ryan Sloan, RHP (No. 10); Felnin Celesten, SS (No. 53); Jonny Farmelo, OF (No. 58); Michael Arroyo, OF/2B (No. 69); Lazaro Montes, OF (No. 80).
Baseball America
Baseball America has Seattle ranked at No. 10, highlighting its top-of-the-line arms that pair well with high-upside positional players. It is impressive that the Mariners maintained their preseason No. 10 ranking considering they drafted at No. 24 overall.
Kade Anderson, LHP (No. 6); Ryan Sloan, RHP (No. 9); Lazaro Montes, OF (No. 58); Felnin Celesten, SS (No. 98).
Strengths
High Upside
Seattle has chased upside through most of its player acquisition and development strategies. The FanGraphs ranking highlights this, with the fewest tangible prospects while maintaining the highest average value per prospect.
The M’s are the only team with two top-10 prospects across multiple outlets, despite having consensus top-10 prospect Colt Emerson graduate.
Outside of the pitchers, Lazaro Montes, Jonny Farmelo, Felnin Celesten, Yorger Bautista, Boston Smith and Korbyn Dickerson are all notable prospects with the boom-or-bust label. Every player possesses tantalizing upside, but they will need to improve their contact rates to reach their ceilings as Major League prospects.
Catcher Depth
It remains to be seen if Cal Raleigh can return to the ranks of best catcher in baseball considering his historic struggles at the plate this year. Despite that, Seattle still has some of the best organizational catcher depth in baseball.
Luke Stevenson and Boston Smith highlight the position’s upside. Stevenson projects as an average catcher at the next level with a great eye at the plate. If he can increase his power numbers and climb closer to 20 home runs a year, he could be a future All-Star.
The recently acquired Smith has elite power and walk rates and is a good overall athlete. Yet he struggles to cover the entire strike zone and needs to cut down on the swing-and-miss. While he possesses all the athletic traits to stick behind the dish, his catcher fundamentals are lacking as of now. If he is able to obtain even fringe-average contact and defensive tools, he could be another above-average starter.
Josh Caron and Grant Jay are both interesting catching prospects as well. Jay has a cannon for an arm — he also pitches in relief — and possesses 70-grade raw power, but will take a few years to refine his other skills and become a viable major leaguer. Caron has a well-rounded profile and has slashed .265/.357/.542 with 24 stolen bases across High-A and Double-A. He has an average glove, and should he cut down his strikeout rate (29%), he has a shot to be a solid backup catcher in the show.
Future International Class
Shortstop Eudi Yuten and Mairon De La Rosa are two of the top five players in the 2027 international class. Seattle has verbal agreements to sign both of them for around $4 million each. Both are switch-hitting shortstops who are potential five-tool players. Each will immediately rank in the top 10 in the Mariners’ system and will have the most upside and volatility in the minors.
Weaknesses
Depth
While there is plenty of top-end talent, this farm system lacks depth. A lot of that is due to the limited proximity and production of most players.
Of the 30 players listed in MLB.com’s top Seattle prospects, only three have reached Tacoma, and just six more have ascended to Double-A.
As these players progress through the system, the middle class of the farm system will grow. This will give the team better depth and more trade chips.
Pitching After Top Two
Anyone who follows Mariners prospects closely knows of their top two pitching prospects, Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan. Some may even know of lefty Mason Peters, who has a shot to be a No. 4 starter in the big leagues.
Outside of those three and recent third-round draft pick Nathan Taylor out of Cincinnati, there aren’t many other notable arms. Seattle will likely look to restock its cupboards in next year’s draft.
A Surefire Third Baseman
Most of the spots on the Mariners’ roster are locked down for the foreseeable future. The team has the most starting pitching depth in baseball, while Cal Raleigh (C), Josh Naylor (1B), Cole Young (2B) and Colt Emerson (SS) are under contract for the next few years and then some.
Center field is essentially Julio Rodriguez’s forever, with Dominic Canzone and a plethora of outfield prospects primed to man the grass for years to come.
Third base, however, has no such secure future. Brendon Donovan’s contract expires after next year with no heir apparent.
Until this year’s draft, there were no notable third base prospects in the organization. Mississippi State’s Ace Reese was drafted to the position, but has questionable defensive grades and might move over to first base if his glove can’t keep up with his bat.
Outside of Reese, or potentially moving Felnin Celesten off shortstop, it is hard to see the third baseman of the future within the organization.
Next Wave of Impact Players
Seeing as both Anderson and Sloan are consensus top-10 prospects in the industry, it should come as no surprise that they are on the cusp of the big leagues. Anderson has already proven everything he needs to in Double-A, and he will now be called up to pitch Saturday against the Cubs for his Major League debut. Ryan Sloan will likely have to wait until later this year or early next year.
Younger and less seasoned, Sloan might not be ready to cover major league innings today, but he is knocking on the door, as he has 100 strikeouts to just 14 walks in 81 2/3 innings this year.
It might not be this year, but Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes project as the next impact position players to be called up. Arroyo has looked phenomenal so far, carrying a .286/.362/.493 slash line for an .855 OPS. He could see some action against lefties with the M’s as soon as this September.
Swing-and-miss tendencies remain a glaring issue for Montes, as he carries a 37% strikeout rate across two levels this year. This is unlikely to improve should he be called up. While the power is tantalizing, Montes needs to make contact with the ball in order to access it. Thus, he will likely remain in Tacoma for the rest of this season to try to cut down his strikeout rate.
Both Arroyo and Montes will force Seattle’s hand at some point considering their proximity to the majors. They might not be on the Opening Day roster next season, but they will likely be on the roster by midseason to push the Mariners over the top.
