Analysis: 3 Keys For Washington State to Upset No. 18 Virginia
As demonstrated in Washington State’s close loss to the fourth-ranked Ole Miss Rebels last weekend, the Cougars have shown significant improvement in recent weeks. They will have another tough task going back to the east coast to take on a surprising 18th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers squad on Saturday night as they look to climb back above the .500 mark in their continued push for a bowl game.
Here are three keys for Wazzu to get over the hump and upset Virginia in Charlottesville:
Continue to Run the Ball Effectively
Washington State’s offensive growth in the last couple weeks has been based on the emergence at quarterback of Zevi Eckhaus and the ability to run the ball as a complement to the senior quarterback. In the last two games, the Cougars have averaged 142.5 rushing yards per game compared to 57.8 per game in the four games before, with the majority of the rushing yards in the first part of the season coming against San Diego State. Kirby Vorhees has been their best running back this season and has taken the majority of the snaps at running back in recent weeks. He had a monster 46-yard run against Ole Miss that went for a touchdown and has 244 rushing yards on 5.1 yards a carry this season.
Vorhees has been sharing reps with Angel Johnson, Leo Pulalasi, and Maxwell Woods out of the backfield, with Woods being primarily used as a pass catcher. Virginia’s defense ranks 43rd in the country in rushing yards per game and 42nd in rushing yards per attempt, so they have been respectable in that department. Regardless of their performance against the Rebels, the Cougs won’t be able to sneak up on Virginia like they did against Ole Miss, and being one dimensional would be a recipe for disaster against a talented team.
Don’t Let Virginia Get Its Own Ground Game Going
Washington State struggled to stop the run against Ole Miss, letting running back Kewan Lacy run all over them with 142 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Virginia has a powerful rushing attack of its own with three quality running backs and averages 217 yards per game, which ranks 18th in the country. Washington State has shown improvement over the last few weeks on the defensive end. But stopping the run has been an ongoing concern. Even in a blowout win over Colorado State, Jalen Dupree and Lloyd Avant had 18 carries for 101 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry against the Cougars, highlighting what has been a perpetual issue.
When playing the Huskies in the Apple Cup, Jonah Coleman and Demond Williams Jr ran the ball effectively with 25 carries for 127 yards and three touchdowns. Against North Texas, the Mean Green as a team had 29 carries with 163 yards and four touchdowns. On the plus side, the Cougars’ defense has done an awesome job bending without breaking in recent weeks. You can assume at some point that trend may stop, so it’s really important for the Cougs to slow down the running game if they want to come into Charlottesville and snag a win.
Win the Turnover Battle
It may seem cliche for an underdog, but the Cougars hung tough with the Rebels last week in large part due to winning the turnover margin in a tough road environment. Eckhaus didn’t throw any interceptions and none of Wazzu’s skill players lost fumbles, preventing Ole Miss from getting short field off of quick possession changes, while defensive lineman Bryson Lamb recovered a fumble by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss in the red zone, taking at least three points off the scoreboard in the process. Unfortunately, the Cougs couldn’t score any points of their own off the turnover, but it still proved to be a net positive.
If Washington State intends to turn in another stellar performance on the road against a superior team, Eckhaus and the offense will have to continue to play clean football and not turn the ball over, while the defense will have to capitalize on any opportunities presented to intercept a pass or recover a fumble for a crucial momentum-changing turnover. At minimum, they have to keep the margin even, but playing on the road, being on the positive side feels like a must-have to steal the upset.
