Analysis: Two Keys For Washington State To Pull Off Upset Win Against James Madison
The Cougars travel across the country to face the 21st-ranked James Madison Dukes, a team with legitimate eyes on the College Football Playoff. The Dukes are coming off a dominant 58–10 win over the Appalachian State Mountaineers and, for most of the season, have overwhelmed their Sun Belt opponents winning conference games by an average of 21 points.
Washington State, meanwhile, is looking to build on last week’s fantastic defensive performance against Louisiana Tech, where they allowed just three points, and are just one win away from bowl eligibility. What are the keys for Wazzu to pull off the upset?
1. Stop the Run
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, James Madison sits 25th nationally, with both their offense and defense rating inside the top 33. Not only is their team balanced as a whole, but so is their quarterback Alonza Barnett III. One of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in college football, he enters the game with 16 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns and is coming off a game where he ran for two scores.
JMU also features two productive running backs in Wayne Knight and Jordan Fuller. While Barnett III is explosive, his offense leans heavily on its rushing attack. With the 11th-lowest pass rate in the country, this is a team that wants to beat you on the ground first and foremost.
For Washington State, the formula is simple but difficult: stop the run and force the Dukes to win through the air. The Cougar defense has played excellent football recently and, outside of the games against North Texas and Washington, the defense has been terrific the whole season. Tackling in space has improved significantly since September, and they'll need another disciplined performance to slow down the Dukes' ground game.
2. Maintain Run-Pass Balance
The Cougars put up 28 points against Louisiana Tech and, notably, had their first game without a turnover since the Ole Miss matchup. Going on the road to face a heavily favored top 25 opponent, the Cougars cannot afford to give JMU extra possessions, what with Barnett III’s potent offense. Wazzu ran the ball effectively last week with 29 carries for 157 yards and a touchdown, with quarterback Zevi Eckhaus adding 56 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the running game himself. His mobility has been a major asset for the offense all season.
However, JMU presents an entirely different challenge, ranking 7th nationally in opponent rushing yards per game. While part of that number may be inflated due to their strength on schedule - and teams being so far behind they need to throw the ball in the air - it still won’t make things easy for the Cougs on the ground.
Washington State can't afford to be one-dimensional. They need to protect Eckhaus, give him time to throw and take care of the ball, and that’s where the game will be decided.
Final Thoughts
Washington State sits one win away from bowl eligibility but earning that win won’t come easy, flying across the country to face a James Madison team that has a chance for the College Football Playoff. In the first year of the Jimmy Rogers era, the Cougars have generally been getting better, especially on defense, but they will need one of their most complete performances of the year to take down the Dukes.
