Contrary to Norm, Turnovers Are Overrated For 2025 Seahawks

You hear it all the time. Whenever the talking heads get together, talking about who might win a football game, “winning the turnover battle” or “not turning the ball over” seems to be among the chief narratives.

For the most part, that does ring true. Naturally, if you give your opponents more chances to score than you give yourselves, the majority of the time, when stretching that data across hundreds or thousands of football games, the team in the “minus” in the turnover margin loses the game. In fact, an article from Yahoo! Sports broke it down:

“According to a Harvard study, teams with a +1 turnover differential win 69.4% of games, +2 win 82.3% of games, and +3 win 91.4% of possible games.”

Good thing the 2025 Seahawks aren’t interested in following historic trends. Their own quarterback, Sam Darnold, certainly doesn’t think past dictates present or future. The same man who started his NFL career going 13-25 for the woebegone Jets after being their third overall pick in 2018. The last two seasons, he now sits at 28-6.

And yet, his interception percentage (2.9) this season mirrors that of his Jets days. He hasn’t dramatically cut down on his turnovers since leaving New York. During his Jets career, he sat at 3.2%. The league average this year was 2.2%. His interception rate was worse than the likes of Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young.

Darnold threw at least one interception in nine games this year. Seattle is 7-2 in those contests. They even won both games where he threw exactly two picks, the last game against the Rams and the contest in Pittsburgh early in the year.

The Seahawks as a team have been one of the worst for giveaways in the NFL. In fact, only the Minnesota Vikings gave the ball away more in 2025 than the Seahawks. Seattle finished the season with a minus three turnover margin, ranking 22nd in the league. They are one of only four teams that made the playoffs with a negative turnover margin.

So, why have the 2025 Seahawks made turnovers a moot point for the most part?

For starters, it might not just be the Seahawks. It should be noted that of the six winners during Wild Card weekend, four of them lost the turnover battle. In a playoff game. Yet they won. In 2021, Matthew Stafford led the NFL in interceptions, yet won the Super Bowl with the Rams. Josh Allen had a higher interception rate than Sam Darnold’s 2025 mark back in 2023, and yet the Bills won 11 games and reached the Divisional Round.

Half of the top six passers in interceptions this year won 11 games or more.

This isn’t to say the Seahawks are bulletproof heading into their matchup with the 49ers. There is absolutely a scenario where turnovers doom Seattle and the red and gold are dancing on Seattle’s home turf, advancing their way to the NFC title game.

However, the narrative that the Seahawks only can win if Darnold doesn’t throw an interception (or even two) needs to die. That’s been proven untrue several times.

The Seahawks run the ball well, limit possessions for the opponent, and play elite defense on top of Darnold’s aggressiveness oftentimes leading to explosive plays, more than worth the cost of admission with the risk of potentially giving the ball back to the other team from time to time. That formula can withstand one, even two turnovers, depending on where and when they happen.

While turnovers are a very important part of the game, it’s not the ultimate end-all, be-all, which is why Seattle’s issues handing the ball over shouldn’t be viewed as too big of a concern in regard to its viability as a Super Bowl contender.