Tigers or Guardians? What AL Wild Card Series Means for Mariners
The Seattle Mariners may have a few days of relative rest over the coming week, but there is still plenty of action in the baseball world while the M’s have their breather. Two Wild Card series begin on Tuesday for the Junior Circuit, but with the way the bracket works, one of these—between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers—is more immediate to Seattle’s concerns.
That best-of-three series in Cleveland will be the culmination of one of this season’s most memorable storylines. The Tigers burst out of the gate as the sole juggernaut in an otherwise weak division, holding a 53-32 record at the end of June (the best in baseball) and an 11 ½ game lead over the second place Guardians. By July 7, Detroit had a 15 ½ game lead over Cleveland, who by that point was in fourth place, seven games below .500. The Guardians were even minor sellers at the deadline, trading Paul Sewald and an injury-plagued Shane Bieber.
However, they kept Steven Kwan—the subject of a maelstrom of late July rumors—and an 8-5 record between the All-Star Break and the deadline projected stabilization at the very least. Still, very few teams on the edge of contention can afford to tread water in August as the Guardians did and still remain in the hunt. By the end of August, Cleveland had an outside shot at the third wild card but was still 10 ½ games behind Detroit and in third place in the Central. Even if the Tigers fell apart and went, say, 7-17 over their final month (a .292 winning percentage), the Guardians would have to go on a 19-8 run (a .704 winning percentage) just to tie.
Baseball is a funny thing: that happened. Well, not quite. The Tigers went 7-17, sure, but the Guardians did one better with a 20-7 final month to finish the year 88-74, a game ahead of Detroit for the Central.
Detroit Tigers: Back from the Brink?
It may have been the Seattle Mariners who broke the Detroit Tigers. The very last first half series for either team began with the Tigers at 59-35 and the Mariners fresh off a humiliating sweep against the Yankees, and yet, the M’s crushed the Tigers, sweeping three games by a combined score of 35-14. This got Seattle back on its feet heading into the break, but for Detroit, it began a stretch of bad play that never truly went away, and they barely managed to limp into the postseason due to a tiebreaker over Houston.
Despite their recent run of form, the Tigers are a formidable team. Ace pitcher Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA) leads the American League in ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.30), and WHIP (0.891). The offense, though around league average as a whole, has notable standouts in Riley Greene (.806 OPS, 36 home runs, 31 doubles, and 111 RBIs), Spencer Torkelson (.789 OPS, 31 home runs, 27 doubles, and 78 RBIs), and Zach McKinstry (.771 OPS, 12 home runs, 23 doubles, 11 triples, and 19 stolen bases).
However, their second half slump has affected a lot of the team. Starter Casey Mize’s ERA jumped from 3.15 in the first half to 4.92 since the All-Star Break. Closer and former Mariner Will Vest had a 2.30 ERA and .186 opponent batting average in the first half but a 4.21 ERA and .311 opponent batting average in the second half.
With all the marbles on the table for their three-game wild card series in Cleveland, there’s no doubt that Skubal will start game one on Thursday. However, that would mean that if Detroit makes it to the ALDS, Skubal would only be available for Game 2 on Sunday at the earliest. For what it’s worth, Skubal would have plenty of motivation to exact revenge on Seattle. Over two starts and 10 ⅔ innings against the Mariners, he gave up seven earned runs, suffering a loss in both outings.
Any Tigers turnaround would almost certainly depend on Skubal’s ability to blank the Guardians in Game 1, but the playoffs do also produce unusual heroes. If Seattle faces Detroit in the ALDS, they will be dealing with a team that managed to recover from one of the worst collapses in baseball history—no small feat indeed if the Tigers pull it off.
Cleveland Guardians: Echoes of the Past
The Mariners don’t have much playoff experience in their almost 48-year history, but much of the postseason memories they do have lies beside the Cuyahoga. The story of “Refuse to Lose” often ends with the Double, and though that play saved the franchise, it didn’t propel the Mariners to championship glory. Rather, 1995 came to an unceremonious end, the Mariners shut out by Dennis Martinez and the then-Indians in Game 6 of the ALCS.
Ghosts of 1995 nearly haunted Seattle again in the 2001 ALDS, as Cleveland found a 2-1 series lead, but the M’s won the final two games of the series to make it to the ALCS for the third time in their history. For the third time, Seattle was eliminated before they even made it to Game 7, but that story did not involve the Indians.
They may be the Guardians now, but if they meet the Mariners in 2025, it will again be in the ALDS. Moving closer to the present, the 2025 Guardians resemble an alternate trajectory of the 2024 Mariners where the team’s late surge actually got them to the ballroom. Cleveland is fourth in the American League in starter ERA, much of that due to ace Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA), who has mixed filthy curveballs, sweepers, and cutters to success, though he has walked more batters than anyone else in baseball.
The bullpen is Cleveland’s true killer. The Guardians have the second-best bullpen ERA in the American League at 3.44, and even with their original closer Emmanuel Clase on indefinite leave due to an ongoing gambling investigation, the next men up have more than delivered. Cade Smith has successfully closed it out 13 out of 16 times after Clase’s exit, racking up a 2.51 ERA and 19.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio since the closer role fell to him, while Jakob Junis (2.97 ERA, 3.45 FIP), Hunter Gaddis (3.11 ERA, 3.50 FIP), Kolby Allard (2.63 ERA, 3.56 FIP), and even former Mariner Matt Festa (4.12 ERA, 3.14 FIP) have given Cleveland some good innings.
On the offensive side of the ball, however, the Guardians have been less effective, their 643 runs scored the least of any AL team. Much of their production relies on two guys: third baseman José Ramírez (.863 OPS, 30 home runs, 31 doubles, 85 RBIs, and 44 stolen bases) and outfielder Steven Kwan (.705 OPS, 11 home runs, 29 doubles, 56 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases), with the rest of the roster often times struggling to chip in.
Williams will pitch Game 1 against Detroit while Tanner Bibee (12-11, 4.24 ERA) will handle Game 2. If Cleveland plays a Game 3 in the Wild Card Series, they will look to Slade Cecconi (7-7, 4.30 ERA), but a Guardians sweep would likely push Cecconi’s start to Saturday against Seattle. If Cecconi is unavailable, however, the M’s would have to deal with Joey Cantillo, a young starter who joined the rotation after Luis Ortiz was placed on leave and has since accrued a 2.96 ERA and a 2.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Whoever the starter may be, if the Guardians are the ones coming to town on Saturday, the Mariners will spar with perhaps the only team that had a better September than Seattle.
Upcoming Scrimmages
Regardless of which AL Central squad will put on their cleats in the visitors’ dugout on Saturday night, the Mariners will have to balance much-needed rest with keeping their blades sharper than those of the well-cut T-Mobile grass. The team is holding two scrimmages, one on Wednesday at 2 p.m. and one on Thursday at 5 p.m., while holding lighter team workouts on Tuesday and Friday.
“Motion is lotion” was the phrase Cal Raleigh used to describe his attitude towards keeping his and his team’s edge as they prepare for their first home playoff series in a generation.
