Analysis: Three Moves Mariners Need to Make Before Impending Lockout
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement in Major League Baseball ends on December 1, 2026. Most assume there will be a lockout of some kind as the owners and players fight for things they want, including the league desiring the implementation of a salary cap.
The situation might even get to the point where the 2027 regular season is shortened or altered in some way. Things might get messy. What can’t happen during that undetermined amount of time? Trades and signings. That will be a long stretch of winter for fans who love offseason moves with no activity.
What needs to happen in Seattle before that seemingly inevitable long, dark winter? Here are three moves the Mariners must make before the impending lockout arrives:
Re-Sign Randy Arozarena
For all the Mariners’ failures in 2026, one was not Randy Arozarena. He led the Mariners in hits (161), doubles (34), home runs (26), RBI (79), average (.281), on-base percentage (.381), and OPS (.865). Needless to say, things would have been even worse had Arozarena not had a career year in 2026.
The Mariners shouldn't let themselves get into a situation where December arrives and Arozarena is still unsigned. He was clearly their best hitter. It’s extremely rare for a right-handed hitter to have this kind of success with the Mariners, given the pitcher friendliness of T-Mobile Park. His 151 wRC+ is the fifth-best in Mariners history for any right-handed hitter since T-Mobile Park opened. The names above him on that list are guys named Alex Rodriguez, Nelson Cruz, and Edgar Martinez.
Seattle needs to get a new deal done and fast.
Extend Logan Gilbert
Starting pitching is very expensive. Good starting pitching is even more so. Gilbert is already under team control for 2027, but he's entering the part of his career where an extension becomes increasingly expensive. The payroll environment in baseball after the new CBA might be completely different. It might make it more difficult to sign Gilbert long term if there is some sort of salary cap put in place.
Gilbert has yet to re-capture his All-Star form from 2024, when he posted a 3.23 ERA in 208 innings with 220 strikeouts and a 115 ERA+. In the two seasons since, he has a combined 3.61 ERA and 107 ERA+. Those numbers aren’t quite as top-tier but still absolutely those of a starting pitcher worth paying for. Gilbert will likely command near $30 million per year on the open, free market. What he might lack in pure All-Star numbers he makes up for in availability and durability. Over the last five seasons in Seattle, he is averaging 31 starts and 180 innings.
With some uncertainty elsewhere in the starting rotation, the Mariners should make sure they have one of their thoroughbred horses paid and happy before the lockout.
Hire External Manager
This seems like an obvious one. Technically, teams can still hire managers during a supposed lockout, but with slim pickings as it is, making a hire as quick as possible should be a priority. Dan Wilson is gone after the most disappointing season in Mariners history. Jerry Dipoto made it clear after Wilson's departure that they will look outside the organization for a new skipper. Timing is important.
The Mariners shouldn’t want to enter a lockout without having hired a manager, even if they can hire one during the freeze. The less organizational instability they have this winter, the better. The Mariners need a new voice. A new perspective. That’s why candidates like Rocco Baldelli (former Twins manager) or Brandon Hyde (former Orioles manager) are intriguing. Whoever emerges as the favorite to succeed Wilson, the Mariners should lock that candidate down before the freeze arrives this winter.
