Three Burning Questions for Mariners at All-Star Break
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Seattle Mariners designated hitter Cal Raleigh (29) reacts after striking out against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images [/caption]
The Seattle Mariners, along with the rest of MLB, have completed the unofficial "first half" of the 2026 season. The baseball world focuses on Philadelphia over the next few days as the All-Star festivities begin in the City of Brotherly Love. The Mariners enter the break one game below .500 at 48-49. It certainly has been a frustrating, uneven first half of a season where the team, and its fans, felt a berth to the franchise's first ever World Series was at hand.
Nothing in this beautiful, amazing, dumb sport is that simple. Now, the Mariners have serious questions. Ones that need addressing if the Mariners are to even make the playoffs at all, much less punch their ticket to the Fall Classic.
Are Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor ever going to snap out of it?
The fact that the Mariners are in a playoff spot (tied for last Wild Card spot) despite getting virtually nothing from Raleigh and Naylor is a minor miracle. They are batting a combined .218 with just 17 homers combined. For reference, these two sluggers had - you might want to sit down for this - 49 home runs before the All-Star break. After Naylor arrived at the deadline last season, he was an instant spark and the deal he signed to stay in Seattle long term seemed like a no-brainer.
Fair or not, Raleigh set a nearly impossible standard for himself with last year’s 60 homers and MVP runner-up finish. Even if fans knew to temper expectations heading into this year, no one expected the Mariners star catcher to be this bad. Among 256 hitters with at least 200 plate appearances this season, he ranks 251st in OPS.
Can either of them pull out of it in the second half? Sure, the track record is there. But are there signs?
Unfortunately, for Raleigh, the underlying numbers aren’t pretty, either. His bat speed, hard hit rate, sweet spot rate, and average exit velocity are all down significantly from last season. His expected slugging percentage is down nearly .200 points from last season and down over 100 points from his career average. It’s tough to pinpoint why Raleigh is struggling so badly, aside from the lingering oblique injury. Hopefully being on the other end of a long stint on the IL from it and a much-needed All-Star break can give him the hard reset he appears to need.
Things are a bit more optimistic for Naylor. He ranks in the 90th percentile for “squared up” rate. He is still as tough to strikeout as ever. In fact, his strikeout rate is down. His expected batting average is roughly the same as last season. His line drive rate is improved from last season. He seems to be hitting the ball to the opposite field more this season, be it a change in approach or a timing issue. Either way, it’s something that seems more fixable quicker than Raleigh.
How real is the concern for the team's road game woes?
The saying is if you go above .500 at home and .500 on the road, that’s a playoff team most of the time. The Mariners are a solid 27-20 at home, as any playoff team would be. However, they have the worst record on the road among all American League teams occupying a playoff team. What’s the deal?
They have the top team ERA when pitching at home. This certainly checks out, given T-Mobile Park is largely considered the most pitcher-friendly park in MLB. However, they rank 12th in ERA on the road, a whole run worse.
Offensively, they rank ninth in wRC+ at home. Yet, on the road, they rank 22nd with a 91 wRC+. They seem to hit well at home, despite the disadvantage. It’s when they hit the road where their offense sinks. That seems upside down. Dare we say, unsustainable.
This is one area where it seems like things should even out.
What can the Mariners get for trading away Luis Castillo?
The MLB trade deadline is August 3. The Mariners have some serious work to do to get this team turned around quickly for a playoff push down the stretch. Fortunately, Seattle has something every team would do just about anything to have- surplus of MLB-level starting pitching. That means, among contenders with chips to deal for upgrades, the Mariners might be the belle of the ball.
Veteran starter Luis Castillo seems almost certain to be traded, despite his $24.5 million price tag this year and next. His veteran track record speaks for itself, even if that’s mostly in the past. A team desperate for starting pitching stability will want Castillo.
It seems the Mariners have made their intentions clear. They will trade Castillo if it merits them a back-end reliever and right-handed bat.
Nightengale: Mariners are willing to trade one of their prized starters for a back-end reliever and right-handed hitter, most likely Luis Castillo. pic.twitter.com/LsHyjcmCpK— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) July 12, 2026
This suggests that the Mariners believe they hold all the cards in a big deal for one of their starters. They won’t use their best trade chip unless it fixes two of their biggest holes at once. That will be a tough deal to put together but if anyone can pull that off, it’s the Mariners’ front office.
