> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # So It Begins: Woo-less Mariners Begin ALDS with Two Weekend Matchups - URL: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/so-it-begins-woo-less-mariners-begin-alds-with-two-weekend-matchups/ - Published: 2025-10-04T22:48:38.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-08T06:18:05.000Z - Author: Callaghan Bluechel - Tags: Analysis, Mariners, ALDS, 2025 MLB Playoffs, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1200"\] ![ The T-Mobile Park grounds crew paints the postseason logo on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. Credit: Callaghan Bluechel/Emerald City Spectrum. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/postseason-format-original.jpg) The T-Mobile Park grounds crew paints the postseason logo on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025\. Credit: Callaghan Bluechel/Emerald City Spectrum. \[/caption\] SEATTLE, Wash. — The Seattle Mariners have landed on the shores of Elysium and burned their ships behind them. Yet the fields are not paradise, not yet at least. It is just the sixth time the M’s have been this close to the promised land, the Commissioner’s Trophy just 11 wins away. Yet no one in Mariner blue has ever hoisted that trophy, nor has an American League pennant ever flown above the seven hills of Seattle. At least for now, they need not worry about Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Yankees, or Blue Jays. Up to five games against the Tigers lay ahead of them, the first two in the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. These two teams seemingly had opposite trajectories for much of the year: when the Mariners treaded water around the third wild card, the Tigers had the best record in all of baseball. September saw Seattle surge from the edge of the playoff picture to a first-round bye, all while Detroit lost their division lead to Cleveland in a historic collapse. It was not a fairy-tale ending for the Guardians, though. Riding a one-run, 14-strikeout, 7 ⅔ inning start from Tarik Skubal, the Tigers drew first blood on the road and closed it out in Game 3\. Newly rejuvenated and hungry to get further than they did in 2024, the Motor City Kitties will take the field in Seattle with their best pitcher ready for Game 2\. Seattle, however, will go without their own ace. Bryan Woo was announced on Saturday as a member of the taxi squad for the ALDS due to the pectoral injury he suffered during a Sept. 19 start in Houston. Woo had helped take down the Mariners’ longtime Texan tormentors with five clean innings that day, but it seems the ghosts of that stadium have taken one of Seattle’s own with them, at least for a time. “We just felt like he had made strides as we had hoped and got to a place, but it looked like it wasn’t going to be able to be in this series,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said about Woo’s availability. “Doing the more cautious thing and making sure he gets healthy to where he needs to be, that was what went into the decision.” The day before, however, both teams had announced their starters for the weekend contests in the Emerald City: George Kirby vs. Troy Melton in Game 1 and Luis Castillo vs. Tarik Skubal in Game 2. ### Game 1: Must-Win Matchup It doesn’t matter that the M’s had Skubal’s number in the regular season—he’s still the best pitcher in the American League and Seattle has to get out in front of their opponents before facing their ace on Sunday, otherwise they run a very real risk of going on the road facing elimination. **Troy Melton: 3-2, 2.76 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.007 WHIP.** \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1885"\] ![ Something odd is going on when you are getting hit hard more than almost all pitchers but have a better than average xERA. That something is that Melton has given up noticeably less line drives than the MLB as a whole. Is it sustainable? We might see on Saturday night. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/melton-format-original.png) Something odd is going on when you are getting hit hard more than almost all pitchers but have a better than average xERA. That something is that Melton has given up noticeably less line drives than the MLB as a whole. Is it sustainable? We might see on Saturday night. \[/caption\] Melton is a perfect example of a rookie with some shaky advanced numbers but strong results so far. The number six prospect in the Tigers organization, Melton has been one of the few bright spots of the team’s September, mixing starts with bullpen appearances and keeping Detroit’s opponents mostly off the board. His starter/reliever splits don’t offer much insight, as he has a higher ERA when starting but a lower WHIP and better strikeout-to-walk ratio. His heaters, however, might offer the Mariners some trouble. Despite the team’s hitting being overall better than the MLB as a whole, the M’s noticeably lag behind the rest of the league when it comes to hitting fastballs out over the plate. 63 percent of Melton’s pitches have been of the fastball type, whether four-seamers, two-seamers, or cutters, and he tends to attack the zone with those pitches. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1836"\] ![ There are definitely opportunities for Mariner hitters to punish these curveballs and sliders out over the plate—but they have to be prepared for it. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/melton-2-format-original.png) There are definitely opportunities for Mariner hitters to punish these curveballs and sliders out over the plate—but they have to be prepared for it. \[/caption\] As always, it’s a matter of getting out on the front foot and simplifying the approach. If Melton can get inside the Mariners’ head and get them to take when they should swing and swing when they should take, we could see some ugly at-bats from the home squad Saturday night. If they keep a see-ball, hit-ball approach, we could see aggressive hitters like Josh Naylor get out in front of Melton and rattle him enough to work some early runs. **George Kirby: 10-8, 4.21 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.190 WHIP.** “Furious George” hasn’t had the best year of his career when you look at the top-line numbers, yet the more advanced stats view him pretty well—almost an inverse of Melton. And the reason why Kirby seemingly underperforms is the same as why Melton overperforms: Kirby has given up line drives at a significantly higher rate than league average in 2025\. Although his hard-hit rate and walk rate have also jumped this season, the increase in line drives is the biggest reason why Kirby has struggled for much of the season. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1885"\] ![ Kirby’s four-seamer and two-seamer haven’t “risen” as much in 2025 as they did in 2024, which could be a big reason why fly balls have turned into line drives for him—but the vertical break numbers haven’t changed much in his past few starts, either. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/kirby-format-original.png) Kirby’s four-seamer and two-seamer haven’t “risen” as much in 2025 as they did in 2024, which could be a big reason why fly balls have turned into line drives for him—but the vertical break numbers haven’t changed much in his past few starts, either. \[/caption\] The last four starts, however, offer some hopeful signs for Kirby. Since Sept. 9, he has sported a 2.95 ERA and 2.43 FIP, and the opposing line drive rate has dropped off a cliff. Wilson and the Mariners are looking to one of the hottest of hands to power through Game 1. One thing Kirby has done, however, is almost completely forsake the splitter and changeup. These pitches, classified by StatCast as off-speed type, have not done him that much good in 2025, as you can see by the 36th percentile “Offspeed Run Value” on the above chart. And out of 286 pitches in his last three starts, he has thrown just *two*, both of them changeups in Houston on the outside edge of the plate against a left-handed hitter. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1837"\] ![ There’s a good chance that the Tigers won’t see much of the bottom row on Saturday, but maybe he’ll change it up (pun intended) for October. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/kirby-2-format-original.png) There’s a good chance that the Tigers won’t see much of the bottom row on Saturday, but maybe he’ll change it up (pun intended) for October. \[/caption\] Kirby has yet to yield a single run in the postseason, though he has only pitched eight total innings of October ball, one of them in relief. His seven shutout innings against the Astros in 2022 are what Dan Wilson is looking to replicate on Saturday night, although he and the Mariners will want none of the stone-cold offense the M’s suffered the last time they played a postseason game at home. ### Game 2: Third Time’s (Not?) the Charm? Well, the Mariners certainly hope Tarik Skubal’s third 2025 outing against Seattle will go like his first two did—and not like his shutdown start in Cleveland the other night. The offense will have an absolute task ahead of them on Sunday night, but so will Luis Castillo, who will probably be working with an infinitesimal margin of error. **Tarik Skubal: 13-6, 2.21 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 0.891 WHIP.** There’s little to say about Skubal that hasn’t already been said before. Aside from wins and losses, every stat on that above line leads the American League. His WHIP is the best in baseball. He has a 7.30 strikeout-to-walk ratio, *also* the best in baseball. He’s one of just 13 pitchers in the game to throw a complete game shutout this year. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2024 and will almost certainly win it again in 2025\. He’s a titan, plain and simple. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1885"\] ![ A StatCast page redder than his alma mater’s mascot. There’s nothing not to like if you’re a Tigers fan. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/skubal-format-original.png) A StatCast page redder than his alma mater’s mascot. There’s nothing not to like if you’re a Tigers fan. \[/caption\] Skubal has a profile without really any downside. His ground ball-fly ball ratio ends up not mattering in the slightest because he misses bats more than almost anyone in the game, and when hitters do get contact, they tend to hit the ball weakly and give opposing fielders ample time to make plays. His four-seamer sits high 90s and regularly tips into triple digits. If he doesn’t get you with that, he has a killer fading changeup for the righties and a running two-seamer zooms back onto the outside edge against lefties. In general, he loves to play on the outer edges of the plate and at the top of the zone, but he’ll change the batter’s eye level with hard sliders and the occasional curveball. Those are his *relatively* weaker pitches, although that word is doing *a lot* of heavy lifting. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1836"\] ![ Imagine a sequence of two changeups to a righty that appear like meatballs before fading onto the black, 100 miles an hour at the top of the zone, and then a curveball that drops off the face of the earth. You can see why Skubal is so unhittable. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/skubal-2-format-original.png) Imagine a sequence of two changeups to a righty that appear like meatballs before fading onto the black, 100 miles an hour at the top of the zone, and then a curveball that drops off the face of the earth. You can see why Skubal is so unhittable. \[/caption\] No one is invincible in a game most defined by failure, but Skubal approaches that more than almost anyone in the game. Still, the Mariners rattled him twice in 2025, scoring seven runs off of him in 10 total innings. During the rest of his career, however, he has dealt with Seattle just like he deals with most everybody else, and there’s a good chance he gets back to that spine-snapping form on Saturday night. **Luis Castillo: 11-8, 3.54 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.185 WHIP.** There has been a little inconsistency in *la Piedra*’s game over the 2025 season. Through July, his ERA was 3.19\. From Aug. 2 through Sept. 1, he had a 7.31 ERA, seemingly blowing up every outing. And from Sept. 7 onwards, he has been completely unhittable, with a 1.07 ERA in his last four starts. Wilson is going with another of his guys on a hot streak, but he’s all but betting the house that the streak continues at least another game. Castillo, up against Skubal, will have to put up an outing worthy of being called *the Rock* if the Mariners want a good chance of taking Game 2. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1885"\] ![ Despite his intermittent struggles this season, Castillo still defies the StatCast page to some degree. Will he keep up the magic in the playoffs? ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/castillo-format-original.png) Despite his intermittent struggles this season, Castillo still defies the StatCast page to some degree. Will he keep up the magic in the playoffs? \[/caption\] Castillo was once one of the most elite ground ball pitchers in baseball, but from 2023 onward, he hasn’t been quite the pitcher he once was. August was marred by sinker after sinker getting pummeled to kingdom come, so he has become something of a fastball-slider pitcher in September with the changeup making more appearances during the second and third times through the order. For four games at least, this strategy has obviously worked, with Castillo getting boatloads of weak contact from hitters expecting his fastballs to drop down towards their bats. In his younger days with the Reds, Castillo once relied on the changeup, and his increased usage of that pitch late in the year—exclusively to left-handers—has helped him regain some of that old form. \[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1836"\] ![ With the sinker a much less used piece of Castillo’s arsenal in September, he has hugged the outer edges of the plate with his sliders to righties and changeups to lefties. ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/castillo-2-format-original.png) With the sinker a much less used piece of Castillo’s arsenal in September, he has hugged the outer edges of the plate with his sliders to righties and changeups to lefties. \[/caption\] Castillo has done solidly against the Tigers in his two starts in 2025, with two wins and a 3.75 ERA versus the Motor City. He only gave up one home run in 12 innings against Detroit, and with the longball of paramount importance in the playoffs, keeping his opponents off the board that way will perhaps be *the* key to success. He will have a mid-autumn marine layer coming to his assistance, and although that heavy air will surely haunt the Mariners’ bats in the ALDS, it might just shave a few runs off Detroit’s tally, too. ### Both Teams All-In All these charts and graphs are useful tools to evaluate the four starting pitchers that will work the rubber in T-Mobile Park over the weekend, but the playoffs are the ultimate X-factor. Each pitcher will be stretched to their limit if they are doing well, but they’ll all be on a short leash if they face any issues. Both dugouts know that their entire seasons are at stake for as much time as they have left to play in 2025 as the winds of October grow colder and the remaining teams grow fewer. This is where legends both heroic and villainous are born. Every second, every pitch, every swing, every catch, and every error will be remembered.