> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Seven-Game Set Begins in Toronto: Pitching Matchups for Games 1-3 of M’s-Jays ALCS - URL: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/seven-game-set-begins-in-toronto-pitching-matchups-for-games-1-3-of-ms-jays-alcs/ - Published: 2025-10-12T23:28:56.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-08T06:17:51.000Z - Author: Callaghan Bluechel - Tags: Analysis, Mariners, ALCS, 2025 MLB Playoffs, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo As the first few games of the ALCS come into full view, the Mariners and Blue Jays have put together a starting rotation for the first contest in Toronto with the Blue Jays also sure about their Game 2 and Game 3 guys. Seattle starts the series with a distinct disadvantage in stamina, having used two starting pitchers in relief and likely without Bryan Woo until the middle of the series at the earliest, but Toronto has a tall task of keeping the Mariners’ many power bats inside their homer-friendly ballpark. ### Game 1: Bryce Miller vs. Kevin Gausman. Although the seven-game series presents many opportunities for teams to overcome early deficits, the first game of any playoff series is the tone-setter. For the visiting team, it’s a chance to nab at least one of the first two games on the road and avoid having to do everything in front of their home crowd; for the higher seed, two home games provide an excellent opportunity to take command of the series. **Bryce Miller: 5.68 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 1.406 WHIP, 2.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.** With all the rest of Seattle’s available starters used in Friday night’s extra-inning marathon, Bryce Miller is getting the ball in Game 1\. Coming off a rough April filled with walks, an injury that knocked him out of the rotation for the middle months of the year, and a homer-heavy end to the year, there has never quite been a point in 2025 where Miller fully evoked his hard-nosed 2024 form. The big issue that permeated his regular season was the velocity on his four-seam fastball. Like most of the Mariners rotation—and most pitchers throughout baseball—Miller’s heater is his go-to workhorse pitch, and any drop in quality can turn one of the best pitchers in the game into a struggling fifth starter. Although Miller had an average four-seam velocity of 95.2 miles per hour in 2024, it declined to 94.8 miles per hour in the 2025 regular season. And sometimes, when one thing goes wrong, everything goes wrong. With Miller finding himself on the back foot all the time, his splitter went from an unhittable out-pitch to something that hitters could more easily lay off of, and his walk rate jumped from 6.4 percent to 8.7 percent. Trying to avoid the walks once he got down in the count resulted in hitters jumping on his diminished fastball. With a little less zip, his hard hit rate worsened from 28th percentile to second percentile, and opponents’ home run rate increased from one home run per nine innings to 1.7 homers per nine. Miller, however, put together a solid appearance in his first postseason go-around. Over 4 ⅓ innings in Detroit, his fastball averaged 96.1 miles per hour, keeping Detroit barrels away from the ball and efficiently wading into the middle of the game. But against the more aggressive, contact-heavy Blue Jays—playing in a much less pitcher-friendly stadium—Miller could find himself on the back foot even with the increase in speed. And coming off just three days of rest, tapping into that extra velocity will be easier said than done. **Kevin Gausman: 3.59 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.062 WHIP, 3.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio.** Gausman and Miller have one similarity: they’re both fastball-splitter guys. But where Miller is relatively untested, Gausman is a journeyman. Where Miller is at the back of Seattle’s rotation, Gausman holds the vanguard. Miller has a series of pitches that he goes to in addition to his heater and off-speed; Gausman almost seldom throws anything else. The 34-year-old Blue Jay, although a little diminished in this aspect from his elite form of previous years, is still one of the premier strikeout pitchers in baseball. His killer combination of a fastball and splitter—although he tends toward the splitter with two strikes, he still mixes it up—brought him to 189 punchouts, tied for 17th in baseball and seventh in the American League. Just as his strikeouts were high, his walks were low; Gausman’s 2.3 walks given up per nine innings during the regular season was also 17th best in MLB and seventh best in the AL. Gausman gave up just one home run per nine innings in 2025, though that figure rose to 1.3 in the close-circled Rogers Centre as the hitter’s park turned some of his many fly balls into round trips for visiting batters. As always for the Mariners, then, the longball will be their key to victory in Game 1. Another blast-bashing team in the Yankees, however, learned how much easier said than done such a performance can be against Gausman. In Game 1 of the ALDS, New York had just a pair of hits despite only two strikeouts in those frames, almost every batted ball finding a Blue Jays glove. The Yankees finally started to put something together in the sixth and got a run through on a bases-loaded walk, but Gausman got two outs in the inning—finishing with 5 ⅔ innings pitched, three strikeouts, and two walks—and Louis Varland cleared the threat to keep the Yankees from any more runs. ### Games 2 & 3: Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber for the Blue Jays, Undecided rotation for the Mariners. Anyone the Mariners start in Game 2 (whether that’s Logan Gilbert or Luis Castillo) will be going at it on just two days of rest from a bullpen appearance in Game 5 of the ALDS. If the M’s do start either of them, it would probably be Castillo, who threw just 15 pitches on Friday night compared to Gilbert’s 34\. Dan Wilson, however, indicated that the Game 2 game plan will depend on the outcome of Game 1, meaning that if Seattle wins on Sunday night, they might go to a bullpen day in Game 2 and give both Castillo and Gilbert some more rest. As for the Blue Jays, however, manager John Schneider has declared Trey Yesavage the Game 2 starter and Shane Bieber for the Seattle opener in Game 3\. Both of these hurlers will give Seattle’s bats a big challenge, but there are a lot of differences between the deadline acquisition and the breakout rookie. **Can Trey Yesavage approach his 5 ⅓ innings of no-hit ball against the Yankees?** Toronto’s top prospect Trey Yesavage lit up the baseball world in Game 2 of the ALDS, striking out 11 batters and walking one during a little over five innings of work. Yesavage did not give up a single hit during his outing, but was taken out after nearing 80 pitches and on the verge of facing the Yankee order for the third time. Pitching is often about being weird and different, and Yesavage’s 64-degree arm angle sets him apart from most other pitchers in baseball. His arsenal is similar to Gausman, with a four-seam, split, and slider, but Yesavage uses his slider much more than Gausman does. In any case, his high release point will make it look very different out of his hand. Should the M’s get a dial on his arm angle, however, they could do some big damage against a slider that doesn’t move a whole lot and a fastball of unremarkable velocity. The M’s have had issues against fastballing rookie pitchers over 2025, however, and will need to get a handle on Toronto's breakout rookie—especially if they are already down a game going into Monday. **Can Shane Bieber recover from a rough outing in Yankee Stadium?** Just about the only blemish on Toronto’s gentleman’s-sweep of the Yankees was Game 3, when the team jumped out to a 6-1 lead but fell apart from the bottom of the third onward and allowed New York the slightest chance to recover in the series. Shane Bieber was the starter that day, but unlike his predecessors, he struggled out of the gate and was unable to get past the third inning. Although an injury knocked him out for almost the entire season, the seven starts he did have showed that he picked up where he left off in years past. Brandishing a four-seamer, curveball, changeup, cutter, and slider, Bieber had a 3.57 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.017 WHIP, and a 5.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2025. Bieber, just like in the ALDS, will be the first Blue Jay pitcher to begin a game on the road. There is a very real chance the M’s enter Game 3 down two games, but as the Tarik Skubal and the Tigers found out the hard way during Josh Naylor’s stolen base, the volume of the Seattle crowd can have a big impact on opposing pitchers.