Analysis: Why Seiya Suzuki Could Be Missing Piece for Mariners
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Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) hits a three run home run during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images [/caption]
After coming up a few innings short of making the fall classic last October, the Seattle Mariners came into the season as one of the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series. Yet, even after winning five of its past six games, Seattle sits hovering just above the .500 mark.
Injuries and inconsistency have been the main culprits for not being able to pull away just yet in a pedestrian AL West division, but the inability to hit lefties has proven to be the M’s Achilles’ heel. During the offseason, the team added outfielder Rob Refsynder with the hopes he would help in that department, but he has been abysmal all season and recently landed on the disabled list with a knee injury, creating even more questions against southpaws.
Some improvement needs to come from current star players such as Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez on this front, but outside additions are needed for a second half surge and a shot to get to the World Series for the first time. Of all the realistic options potentially out there, one stands out as a win/win for both teams with the pitcher-needy Cubs and outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who would be the ideal deadline addition for the M’s for a variety of reasons:
Dependable Production from Right Side
Suzuki has mashed lefties this year, currently running an .880 on-base plus slugging (OPS) against southpaws. Hardly a one-trick pony, he has managed an excellent .803 OPS against righties as well, showcasing the exact kind of offensive threat that the M’s sorely need.
In 266 at-bats, Suzuki has smacked 13 home runs while maintaining an elite .357 on-base percentage (OBP). His balance of power and OBP has culminated in impressive wins above replacement (WAR) numbers at 2.6 bWAR and 1.9 fWAR.
He’s been relatively healthy throughout his career as well, playing 138, 132, and 151 games in the last three years, respectively. Adding Suzuki to an oft-injured Seattle ballclub provides some stability as corner outfield mainstays Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, and Luke Raley have all missed games due to injuries this year.
A baserunning threat earlier in his career, Suzuki has decided that his days of stealing bases are behind him. He has not even attempted a stolen base this year and scaled down all other aggressive baserunning opportunities as well. Baseball Savant has understandably rated the former Japanese pro’s baserunning in the fifth percentile across all big leaguers. Yet there are other areas where Suzuki provides real value to compensate.
Career Year Defensively in Right Field
The Cubs debuted Suzuki in right field in 2022 and were confident that they would have a plus defensive outfielder to pair with their Gold Glove left fielder Ian Happ for many years to come. The NPB veteran had a cannon for an arm and possessed solid range and awareness on balls put in play. Suzuki failed to put the pieces together, however, securing negative defensive bWAR for four straight years on the north side of Chicago.
Coming into 2026, team executives and fans alike expected more of the same, but this has been a career year with the glove for him. Suzuki has earned positive defensive marks across all metrics, including two outs above average, which ranks in the 84th percentile amongst MLB defenders.
Suzuki has finally capitalized on his elite arm strength and accuracy as evidenced by the 94th percentile arm value stat Baseball Savant uses. His range (83rd percentile) has been plus as well, presenting Suzuki as a well-rounded defender capable of playing an average to above-average right field a couple of days a week.
Suzuki has been the DH in 19 games this year, a trend the Mariners should continue should they acquire the Chicago slugger. This will likely push breakout star Dominic Canzone to the outfield a few days a week, but he doesn’t project to be that much worse than the lumbering Luke Raley, who currently occupies right field.
Contract and Cost
Suzuki is currently due $18 million this year, the final year of his five-year, $85 million contract he signed after coming over from the Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball. Whatever team he is traded to would likely have to pick up about $6 million should he be dealt around the trade deadline. He also has a full no-trade clause in his contract, likely limiting the potential trade partners for the Cubs.
The Mariners are a contending team, on paper at least, which should lead to Suzuki waiving his trade clause to move out west. His bat profile would slot him into the upper half of Seattle’s lineup that would hopefully play deep into October. But what would that cost? There are a few comparable trades from last year that can serve as a basis.
Last year, Seattle’s front office swung two trades for middle-of-the-order bats on expiring contracts like Suzuki’s. Current first baseman Josh Naylor was picked up from the Arizona Diamondbacks for prospects Brandyn Garcia (LHP) and Ashton Izzi (RHP). Both were top 20 prospects in the Mariners farm system per MLB.com’s Top 100 as Garcia was No. 13 and Izzi was No. 16. Another trade soon followed.
Third baseman Eugenio Suarez was acquired about a week later, also from the Diamondbacks, for Tyler Locklear (1B/DH), Hunter Cranton (RHP), and Juan Burgos (RHP). At the time of the trade Locklear was No. 9, Cranton was No. 16, and Burgos came right after at No. 17 in a loaded Mariners prospect list.
Fan-favorite Suarez was worth 3.3 bWAR at the time of the trade. His teammate Naylor had only accumulated 0.9 bWAR when he was moved. Given Suzuki’s track record and performance this season, he will likely cost somewhere in between the return costs of those two deals.
A package consisting of shortstop Nick Becker (No. 8), outfielder Korbyn Dickerson (No. 11), and infielder Brock Rodden (No. 17) would be more than enough in terms of value to acquire Suzuki. The issue with a prospect-based trade, though, is that the Cubs are contending and will likely only move Suzuki if they get major-league help in return.
Chicago has enough reliable outfielders to replace Suzuki with Michael Conforto, Kevin Alcántara, and Matt Shaw all performing well. They do need pitching help, however, as despite being 49-38, they don’t have a single starter with 10 or more starts that has an earned run average (ERA) below 4.25. The Mariners could offer Luis Castillo and some money to make this work, but there could be another solution to consider.
Will Jerry Dipoto Pull the Trigger?
Roping in another team for a three-team trade should get this deal done. The Mariners appear reluctant to trade from their stacked rotation, including Castillo. But the Cubs badly need a pitcher. Plenty of other ballclubs should accept a prospect-focused haul to help facilitate a move to bring Suzuki to the Pacific Northwest.
Casey Mize of the Detroit Tigers, and Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha of the Kansas City Royals, should all be available and worth about what Suzuki would cost in trade outside of money switching hands. All three pitchers would slot into the middle of the Cubs rotation while Suzuki would balance the M’s lineup. The prospect package would help whatever acquiring squad rebuild and focus on 2027. It’s a true win-win-win trade deal.
Will president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto actually pursue such a sizable upgrade? He has shown the capacity to make significant deadline deals in the past. Adding a right-handed hitter of Seiya Suzuki’s caliber needs to be at the forefront of any Mariners trade deadline approach if they intend to build off their American League Championship Series appearance last year, as they have the chips to be able to put on the table to execute such a move.
