Playoff Frenzy Continues for Reign as Louisville Comes to Town

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Seattle Reign forward Maddie Dahlien celebrates her goal against Racing Louisville on Saturday, May 17, 2025 at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Ky. (Jordan Prather / Reign FC Communications) [/caption]

If the most learning happens in unsatisfying games with unsatisfying results, the Seattle Reign are well on their way to being real scholars.

Seattle (7-6-6 W-L-D) is one of four NWSL sides to not have a win in its last five fixtures and is in the thick of the league's playoff race with its 27 points landing it in the seventh seed. With seven games to play, six of the league's 14 squads fall between the 26-30 point range, with Racing Louisville (7-7-5) manning the eighth seed.

Louisville is set to come to Lumen Field on Sunday just a point behind Seattle with Houston (23 points) hot on its tail for the final postseason spot. While we aren't quite in must-win territory, these matchups between playoff hopefuls will start to garner a playoff atmosphere.

Sunday will likely be the beginning of a prolonged playoff push.

Matchup History

Like many of the teams Seattle has seen recently, the matchup history isn't extremely relevant because of how much has happened in between.

The Reign met Louisville for the only time this season way back on May 17, when Seattle was able to grind out a 1-0 win in under some odd circumstances. The game location changed the night before due to a tornado warning, and the wind unpredictably whipped the ball around at Lynn Family Stadium.

Racing controlled 62 percent of possession thanks in part to its high press and won the expected-goal battle 1.1-0.6. Seattle keeper Claudia Dickey notched only one save, though, as she was eased by a backline that totaled their second-highest block total of the season at 17. Thanks to Seattle’s diligence in their own third, Louisville was only able to put one of their 20 shots on target. Seattle, meanwhile, made the most of its four shots by putting three on target when it was able to break through that fierce press.

Forward Maddie Dahlien made good on one of those shots in the 39th minute for the only score of the game with a rolling shot courtesy of an incredible lead pass from Sam Meza.

Louisville had more than enough chances to score multiple goals in this game, but Seattle's backline simply crowded Racing's offense too much to earn a shutout.

"That was a really important game for us on being really solid and hard to beat," Reign coach Laura Harvey said on Saturday morning. "We know we have to be like that (Sunday), we have to expect pressure.”

Louisville Overview

In all four years of its existence before 2025, Louisville has finished ninth and missed the NWSL playoffs. With a chance to move out of the eighth and final spot against Seattle, expect Racing to play its heart out.

But passion and external motivators like playoff implications can only get you so far.

Racing is a team with the potential to wear down over games. Their 62 substitutions in 19 games is by far the lowest total by any NWSL team as they rely on their starting groups game-to-game. For reference, Seattle has made 90 subs in 19 games, the third-highest total in the NWSL.

Part of the reasoning for that trust comes from the star power atop this roster. Emma Sears, a recent USWNT call-up, is one of the league's top scorers with seven goals on the season. Her 57 progressive carries (dribbles into the box or 10 yards upfield) and 123 progressive passes received are both top-five in the league.

However, one thing that has remained consistent since the May contest: Racing's inability to capitalize on good opportunities. Louisville is currently -3.8 when subtracting its expected goals from its actual goal total, indicating an underperformance on the scoring front. Seattle may be inclined to play more conservative defense, as the sample size (including Louisville's 1-20 performance against the Reign) indicates a lack of touch at the end of promising chances.

Despite Louisville's struggles, it's worth noting that Seattle won't have the benefit of tornado-esque winds to aid their defense this time around.

Defensively, Seattle learned how much Racing likes to press its opponents in the first matchup. Leading Reign goal scorer Emeri Adames is confident that Seattle has the personnel to turn that Louisville strength on its head.

"They're obviously a very aggressive team and we've talked about that. I think we just have to play our game, get the ball off your foot quick … I think we can find the ball behind a lot," Adames said.

Seattle Overview

While Louisville has a demonstrable issue with finishing off opportunities, the Reign have found themselves on the other end of the spectrum.

Seattle is +5.0 in goals minus expected goals, as the Reign have consistently converted difficult shots despite their mid-tier goal total of 24 scores in 19 games.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again about these early-season rematches: Having the NWSL all-time assists leader Sofia Huerta back from loan will completely change how opponents view this game. Huerta has been a welcome addition defensively, sure, but her service to big targets like Huitema and through balls to speedsters like Emeri Adames and Dahlien make Seattle a bigger threat to convert when provided few opportunities like they were in the first game.

Defensively, the Reign are in a decent position. Harvey said this early season matchup gave her squad confidence in their ability to bend without breaking. Considering Seattle has allowed three goals in three games, it’ll look to continue that pattern at home.

Individual performances have been driving plenty of Seattle’s success. Phoebe McClernon and Sam Meza have been rounding out into playoff shape lately, while youngster Jordyn Bugg is coming off one of her best performances by Harvey's account. Considering how active this unit was in the first game against Louisville, they’re in decent shape to do the same on Sunday.

On the injury front, Lynn Biyendolo remains out while Shae Holmes should be ready to go, according to Harvey, as both recover from injuries.

This game will be bittersweet, as the Reign will celebrate the career of forward Veronica Latsko, who recently announced she'd be retiring at the end of the season at 29 years old to pursue a law degree in Seattle. Latsko's biggest contribution to Seattle came in 2023, when she scored two goals in two playoff games en route to an NWSL Final appearance for the Reign.

The Verdict

Gotham FC moved from being tied with seventh-ranked Seattle to being tied for third place overnight. Every team in the playoff fray is aware of how important every game is right now, including Louisville.

Harvey's mantra has been to get to 34 points, no matter what. That would take two wins and a draw or, God forbid, seven draws from here on out.

Seattle has the tools to walk out of this game with three points, and frankly, this is a true measuring stick of where the team is at. If the Reign can finally get off the ground with their first three-point result in five tries, it could put Seattle on a trajectory to do something in the postseason.

If Seattle draws or loses, questions of what noise this team can really make in the playoffs will gain real credibility.