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# Winning Fixes Everything: Mariners Enter June in Excellent Shape
- URL: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/seattle-mariners-winning-fixes-everything-lead-al-west-june/
- Published: 2026-06-02T01:31:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-08T06:11:28.000Z
- Author: Callaghan Bluechel
- Tags: Analysis, Mariners, Cole Young, Luke Raley, Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh, Dan Wilson

\[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="6492"\]

![  Seattle Mariners right fielder Victor Robles (10), center, celebrates his walk-off, infield single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the tenth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: John Froschauer-Imagn Images  ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/victor-robles-celebration-format-original.jpg)

Seattle Mariners right fielder Victor Robles (10), center, celebrates his walk-off, infield single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the tenth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: John Froschauer-Imagn Images \[/caption\]

Rarely does a 2 ½ game lead seem so wide. Yet with the way the Mariners are playing and the roster they have, there is a very real possibility that the third month of the season cements them as clear AL West leaders. They do, after all, play in the game’s weakest division this year.

FanGraphs’ projections are often seen as the gold standard for playoff chances, often given without comparison as the stone cold definitive odds. According to [FanGraphs’ default projections](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/div?ref=emeraldcityspectrum.com), the M’s have a 67.7% chance to win the division. 

[Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA](https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/?ref=emeraldcityspectrum.com) has been even more bullish on the M’s from the jump, and their current figure is 78.9%. Even models that weight games played more heavily than preseason projections have the M’s at a greater than 50/50 chance to keep the crown: [Neil Paine’s Elo model](https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2026-mlb-elo-power-ratings-playoff) gives Seattle a 57.7% chance to win the West while [FanGraphs’ season-to-date projections](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/season-to-date/div?ref=emeraldcityspectrum.com) give the M’s a 56.3% chance.

But the thing about streaks is that they end. After all, this is a game where a team can throw eight no-hit innings and lose 13-8\. Where do the M’s need to see improvement in June, and what has to happen to keep their hot players going? 

### Area to improve: Cole Young’s fastball/changeup differentiation

Of all the healthy everyday starting hitters, the only one with an OPS under .700 for the month was Cole Young. This is in itself a lesson in streaks: where his slash line through April 30 was .286/.357/.420, those figures have been .196/.273/.289 since.

Like most hitters, Young has a more neutrally directed swing against fastballs and a more pull-heavy swing against secondaries, with the slower speeds of secondaries allowing for him to try to crack balls in the air to the pull side with more consistency. But in May at least, his timing seems to be a little off.

It’s worth noting that the second baseman got fairly lucky in April and fairly unlucky in May. At an underlying level, he tended to make slightly better swing decisions in the second full month of the season, with slightly more inside-out short swings on fastballs away. But both against breaking balls and fastballs, his timing has been a hair short of where it needs to be all year.

Against heaters, he has often swung a fraction of a second too late, skying the ball if it’s a smidge above his bat and grounding over to second if it’s just below. Being late on heaters is something of a Mariner-wide issue, but it’s notable for Young, who doesn’t have the raw power to afford a fly ball that isn’t truly squared up. Breaking balls are actually a bright spot for him, as he is consistently able to pull them down the line with power for doubles and homers. 

But Young’s biggest issue is on changeups and splitters. He is often early on them, either missing them entirely or rolling them over, with a notably bifurcated clustering of hit types around grounders and flyouts. Pitchers know they can play heaters and off-speed effectively against him and keep him in an in-between zone, which has led to his sputtering May.

### Keep him going: Luke Raley

If there is ever a guy to keep in a groove, it might be May 2026 Luke Raley. The right fielder has been one of the best platoon hitters in the entire game over the month, with a 1.122 OPS, eight homers, one double, and 18 RBIs. He actually had the same amount of extra base hits in May as he did before, but four of the nine such knocks in March and April were doubles.

Raley is doing all of this with a 41.3% whiff rate over the season. Rarely does a player above that 40% mark on swing and miss produce like Raley has, but the league this year has seen two such sluggers, with Munetaka Murakami being the other. When Raley gets a hold of the ball, however, he doesn’t miss it, with a 20.4% barrel rate \[1\] per batted ball.

That level of precision isn’t likely to sustain itself. Just eight players in the StatCast era have managed a higher season barrel rate in a year where they saw 2,000 or more pitches; it has only been done 14 times. The list of players to have done so is filled with the best sluggers in baseball: Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Shohei Ohtani, Nelson Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, and Kyle Schwarber.

Raley isn’t quite as three-true-outcome a hitter as Gallo, but he does have his dry spells. Indeed, they can be quite rough, such as a 13-game stretch in late April where he had one hit and 12 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. The M’s will want to keep his hot streak going for as long as they can. 

### Area to improve: Cal Raleigh’s hitting

It’s unclear when exactly Cal Raleigh is supposed to return from his injury, though the team is expressing contentment with his injury return schedule. When he does return from his oblique injury, however, the team will want him to play as if with a clean slate.

That will be a mental challenge: he carries a slash line of .161/.243/.317 through 181 plate appearances and 161 at-bats. Assuming 3.5 at bats per game in, say, 90 games, he would need to hit nearly .290 and slug nearly .730 in order to get to a comparable batting average and slugging percentage as in 2025\. His goal doesn’t need to be a repeat of his historic 2025 campaign, but getting back to something similar to the way he was playing in 2024 is very much doable for him.

The star catcher won’t be back until some time in the middle of June, but he will be integral to the success of the team once he returns.

### Keep him going: Luis Castillo

Perhaps going out of relief twice in the piggyback plan lit some sort of fire underneath Luis Castillo. After a 6.34 ERA and 4.55 FIP in nine starts to begin the year, he has had a 2.38 ERA and 2.63 FIP in his 11 ⅓ piggybacked innings. 

This is perhaps an indicator that Seattle’s plan to move to a six-man rotation isn’t as optimal as fully moving Luis Castillo to the bullpen would be. But even those numbers are hampered by some bad defense in Seattle’s sixth straight win on Sunday, without which the Diamondbacks wouldn’t have sent it to extras.

Castillo’s best inning all season came because of it, though, as he kept the ghost runner completely off the board to allow the M’s the luxury of only needing to score one run.

“That’s a huge lift,” manager Dan Wilson said after that game. “We saw it the other night (Friday) with Criswell, when you can prevent that run in the top half, it really gives you such a boost, momentum-wise, and our guys were able to take advantage of that.”

A greater command of the four-seamer in an effective two-pitch arsenal has been the calling card in these appearances. This, again, is a reason to move him to the bullpen and keep Bryce Miller - who showed some good splitters and sliders along with his heater on the same day - in the rotation. But perhaps Castillo can play in starts with his arsenal, so long as he throws in enough changeups to keep hitters on their toes. 

### Keep it going: The momentum (duh!)

Players up and down the roster have talked about how they’re in a headspace where everything is coming naturally and easily. That, more than anything, is the flow they have to maintain, as it makes everything else they’re doing leagues easier. 

Wilson made mention of the confidence wrought by their success, something which will naturally mesh with said success in a positive cycle.

“When you’re doing both of those things \[pitching and hitting well\] and you’re playing good defense, good things happen consistently, and I think we feel like we’re in a much better spot that way,” Wilson said. “These guys, they just continue to respond, and they continue to play good baseball. That’s what you love to see, and I think the confidence continues to grow.”

Time - starting with three games against the Mets - will tell how long Seattle can keep up their energy.

\[1\] A barrel is a batted ball with a .500 or greater expected batting average and a 1.500 or greater expected slugging percentage. These essentially measure balls hit hard at an optimal angle for distance, the ones likely to become doubles or homers.