Three X-Factors in Mariners’ Success For 2026
For the Seattle Mariners to return to the playoffs in 2026, it’s obvious which usual suspects have to have strong seasons. Cal Raleigh, while unfair to be expected to mash 60 homers again, needs to be among the league leaders in home runs with a slugging percentage at least near .500. Julio Rodriguez needs to be a 30-30 threat again (30 home runs/30 stolen bases). The top three of the rotation need to be reliable and healthy. Andres Muñoz needs to keep throwing gas and stay healthy as well. That’s all a given.
But to get further than the Divisional Round this time around, Seattle will need contributions from other sources to get over the top. Which X-Factors, if they perform perhaps better than expected, could drive the Mariners finally to their first World Series berth?
Dominic Canzone, OF/DH
Canzone was certainly a sample-size king for the 2025 Mariners. In just 268 plate appearances, he didn’t play on a regular basis until the summer. After battling injuries and playing a chunk of the early season in Triple-A Tacoma, Canzone came up big in spots down the stretch. He posted a 1.048 OPS and .365 batting average in the last 20 games of the regular season. He then went cold during the postseason. But his shortened regular season numbers are gaudy- .300 average, .840 OPS, 142 OPS+ (42% above league average).
Expecting him to maintain an .840 OPS might be unrealistic, especially if he plays more than his previous career high of 82 games. However, if he can hit roughly 15 to 20 homers with an OPS north of .700, that will greatly benefit and lengthen this lineup.
Mariners right fielders as a collective unit had a meager .665 OPS last season, ranking 22nd in the league. Seattle also needs a good DH when it’s not Cal Raleigh catching. That might be where Canzone gets the most of his playing time, barring injuries in the outfield. The key is Canzone giving Dan Wilson enough confidence to keep him in the lineup against lefties. If he can do that, and maintain at least a league-average OPS overall, that’s extremely valuable given the depth elsewhere on the roster.
Cole Young, 2B
The first round pick for Seattle in 2022 finally broke through in the big leagues in 2025. The 22-year-old displayed good plate discipline and the ability to control the zone. He showed spurts of power as well, hitting four homers with seven doubles and a triple in just over 250 plate appearances. He now looks to be the Opening Day second baseman, with the departure of Jorge Polanco in free agency. Young won’t be expected to carry the offense. What he cannot be, is a black hole towards the bottom. Last year, he mustered a .607 OPS and 78 OPS+. Over a full season, he needs to be much better.
Now, that’s unfair to judge him on his first ever 257 plate appearances of his MLB career. He was still getting his feet wet and his sea legs. With a full offseason as “the guy” at second, fully part of Seattle’s plans in the starting lineup, he should start 2026 much more prepared to handle MLB pitching. If he can be even league average offensively, towards the bottom of the lineup, that changes the entire complexion of this team. He likely will bat eighth or ninth. If he can reach base consistently and put together league-average numbers, that should turn the lineup over to the big hitters with runners on base more often. Young could be a keystone in the arch of this lineup.
Imagine the 2026 Mariners with Young producing at a league average rate, getting on base for the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Brendan Donovan, and Cal Raleigh at the top of the lineup.
Bryce Miller, SP
Miller become one of the heroes of the 2025 Mariners’ postseason run. Miller stepped up significantly after his injury-plagued regular season. The Mariners reached the ALCS (facing the Toronto Blue Jays), and he made three starts totaling 14.1 innings over those playoffs, with a 2.51 ERA. Had the Mariners made the World Series, Miller’s postseason efforts would have earned him folk hero status. However, the deck is cleared and reshuffled for 2026. Overall, last year, Miller was a point of frustration among fans. He made just 10 starts before August 19, to the tune of an enlarged 5.73 ERA.
Even when he returned in August, he did not look sharp down the stretch, posting a 5.62 ERA in his final eight starts of the regular season. A switch flipped during the postseason. If the Mariners can get “2025 Postseason Bryce Miller” for the majority of 2026, they will be the best starting rotation in MLB. We know that the Mariners will deploy Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby in four of the five days and that will make life difficult for opposing hitters. If Miller can regain that form he found during the postseason, it will be tough to beat the Mariners team. There will be no days off when facing Mariners pitching.
