What Now? Seahawks’ John Schneider Puts Career on the Line Trading Geno Smith

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Whether through free agency or the NFL draft, John Schneider faces his most important decision yet finding a replacement for Geno Smith at quarterback. [/caption]

Now in his 16th season as the heart and soul of the Seattle Seahawks’ front office, John Schneider has never been afraid to take a gamble and orchestrate eyebrow-raising moves, and whether they have ultimately worked out or not, such aggressiveness has benefited the franchise most of the time.

While dealing center Max Unger to New Orleans for tight end Jimmy Graham back in 2015 still haunts Seattle to this day and sending multiple first round picks to New York for safety Jamal Adams in 2020 couldn’t have panned out much worse, opting to move on from long-time starting quarterback Russell Wilson in 2022 proved to the right move with Geno Smith outperforming his former teammate over the past three seasons and a boatload of draft assets turning into cornerback Devon Witherspoon, tackle Charles Cross, and edge rusher Boye Mafe, a trio of young foundational pieces for the current roster. More often than not, Schneider has moved on from aging veterans at the right time, knowing when to put sentimentalism to the side to make the best decisions for the good of the team.

But coming off two consecutive seasons without making the postseason, Schneider’s seat at the VMAC has never been hotter than it is right now, much of his own doing amid a turbulent week that started with cutting popular receiver Tyler Lockett as a cap casualty and fellow star receiver DK Metcalf requesting a trade on the same day. With free agency set to begin in a matter of days, that drama has now somehow taken up residence in the back seat after he stunned most of the NFL world by trading Smith to the Raiders in exchange for a 2025 third round pick, leaving the franchise without a clear successor under center and his future beyond this upcoming season dependent on how he navigates upcoming steps to find a long-term replacement.

Only a week ago, Schneider, coach Mike Macdonald, and Seattle brass met with Smith’s representatives looking to extend the veteran signal caller, hopeful to strike a multi-year extension to retain him as the starter for at least a couple more seasons. But negotiations reportedly didn’t unfold as planned with the Seahawks making their latest offer earlier this week and Smith declining to accept without presenting a counteroffer, putting decision makers in a challenging spot.

Once it became clear Smith wasn’t going to accept a deal below $40 million per year, which proved to be the organization’s ceiling, Schneider pivoted and reached out to an old friend, ramping up trade discussions with former Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and the Raiders, who desperately needed a proven quarterback at the wheel and were willing to pay that price tag on an extension. In a matter of a couple of days, the two sides had hammered out a deal, reuniting Carroll with one of his favorite players and leaving Seattle in the middle of the great unknown without a clear pathway forward at the most important position in pro sports.

Does this mean that Schneider doesn’t have a fallback option in place? For any of his perceived faults, he’s always thinking a few steps ahead, so it’s hard to believe that he pulled the trigger on trading away a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback without a detailed, thought out contingency plan in place that he will be ready to execute when free agency opens and speculation already has ran rampant on that front.

Immediately after news broke of Smith’s exit, The Athletic’s Dianna Russini indicated the Seahawks planned to shift their attention to signing impending Vikings free agent Sam Darnold, who is expected to hit the market after not receiving the franchise tag before the deadline.

Taking a near-identical path to Smith as a former top pick for the Jets, Darnold resurrected his career in Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly scheme, throwing for over 4,300 yards with a career-high 35 touchdowns as he led the Vikings to a 14-3 record and a playoff berth. Still just 27 years old and offering top-10 pick pedigree, he’s seven years younger than Smith and previously played for new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak while serving as a backup with the 49ers in 2023, creating an obvious connection between the player and team.

But for as well as Darnold played replacing injured first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, much of his success was fueled by a near-perfect environment, something Smith never enjoyed in his three years as a starter with two different coordinators. O’Connell took pressure off of him with outstanding play calling to help slow down opposing pass rushes and Minnesota’s offensive line graded out much more favorably than Seattle’s, ranking 15th in Pro Football Focus pass protection grades compared to the Seahawks 26th overall ranking and finishing second in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate while the Seahawks finished 21st.

Asking Darnold to come close to replicating his breakout numbers in Seattle while paying him similar money to the contract the team offered Smith carries significant risk, especially considering how poorly he played in his first six NFL seasons. Will he be able to continue his upward trajectory with pass rushers frequently collapsing the pocket and helping him “see ghosts” again like he did in New York?

If the Seahawks prefer to go with a more athletic quarterback whose skill set can be maximized in Kubiak’s offense that features extensive boot legs and rollouts, ex-Bears first-round pick Justin Fields has also been floated as a bridge signal caller with enough upside to still potentially be a franchise player in the right environment. Similar to Darnold, he has prior connections with the team’s new coaching staff, as quarterback coach Andrew Janocko worked with him in Chicago in 2022 and 2023, overseeing a slight increase in completion rate and a 1.2 percent decrease in interception rate despite playing behind a bad offensive line while he torched opponents with 1,700 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns during that span.

At the same time, while his athletic traits are undeniable, Fields has never been able to take the next step as a passer since entering the league coming out of Ohio State, posting a 61 percent completion rate with under a 1.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. That lack of progress has cost him starting jobs with the Bears and the Steelers, who both struggled with stagnant offenses that couldn’t finish drives with touchdowns consistently with him at the wheel.

The chances of either arrangement with Darnold or Fields working out, as would be the case for any successor tabbed to take the mantle at quarterback for the Seahawks, whether through free agency or the draft, lies in Schneider’s ability and willingness to finally address the team’s long-time Achilles’ heel and actually sink a significant financial investment into improving the offensive line in free agency.

While he wasn’t a top-five quarterback by any means and red zone interceptions became a major issue last season, Smith deserves praise for what he managed to accomplish the past three years in Seattle while being subjected to constant punishment in the pocket. In each of those campaigns, per Pro Football Focus, he was pressured on at least 34 percent of his drop backs. Yet, while he was pressured the second-highest rate in 2024, he finished 13th in sack to pressure percentage, a testament to his pocket presence and ability to escape defenders to extend plays.

Among his many strengths, Smith mitigated Seattle’s turnstile-operated offensive line throughout his tenure as starter, and he managed to do so without a quality run game in 2023 and 2024 to help take some of that pressure off his shoulders. Few quarterbacks would have been successful under those circumstances and the Seahawks certainly can’t expect Darnold, Fields, or especially an incoming rookie such as Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart to be anywhere close to that effective under duress. It would be a recipe to unmitigated disaster and a top-five pick that Schneider likely wouldn’t get a chance to select.

This isn’t to say that Schneider shouldn’t be given some benefit of the doubt. After all, he did successfully transition from Wilson to Smith and the Seahawks remained competitive, winning nine or more games three consecutive seasons. With more than $60 million in cap space, if he will ever buck trends and spend for a top center or guard on the market such as Drew Dalman or Will Fries, it would be now, and doing so in conjunction with saving money under center by signing Darnold, Fields, or another veteran could potentially work out on a roster with plenty of talent elsewhere, especially if Metcalf can be persuaded to stay. It’s not impossible to foresee a path to the team being better in 2025.

But rather than buy himself extra time, Schneider has taken reverse course instead, rolling the dice and subsequently raising the temperature on his set by choosing not to overpay for Smith and go an alternative route at quarterback. After proclaiming that the Seahawks were an ascending team multiple times this offseason, both he and Macdonald face mounting pressure to keep the team in the mix for a playoff spot next season and skepticism from the fan base is undoubtedly warranted.

While Seattle may have a plan in motion that yields 10 or more wins next season and a return to the playoffs, there’s also more than enough room for this decision to turn into a catastrophe. And if that happens, quarterback won’t be the only thing that the franchise will likely be looking to replace this time next year.