Projecting 2025 WNBA Playoff Seeding: Are Storm In or Out?
The clock is ticking on the WNBA regular season, which officially concludes on Sept. 11. The playoffs begin on Sept. 14, as the top eight teams will enter a three-round postseason structure that culminates in a seven-game WNBA Finals series.
With only two games remaining on their regular season schedule, the Seattle Storm are a fringe playoff team. Seattle is currently 22-20, holding the seventh seed in the league standings.
Before a massive 17-point collapse against the Los Angeles Sparks on Sept. 1, the Storm were almost completely in control of their own destiny. Now, they need to try and win their final two games while hoping the other factors fall their way.
“Teams are fighting for their lives, teams are fighting for home court advantage — for their spots in the playoffs,” veteran Storm forward Nneka Ogwumike said following Monday’s loss. “So, you have to be able to digest things and then move forward and see how you can get the next win. We did a good job of that for the most part, the last couple of weeks. But there’s only two games left, so there’s no option but to win both of them.”
The Minnesota Lynx (32-8), Atlanta Dream (27-14), Las Vegas Aces (26-14), Phoenix Mercury (26-14) and New York Liberty (24-17) have all clinched playoff berths.
Meanwhile, the Golden State Valkyries (22-18), Indiana Fever (21-20), Los Angeles Sparks (19-21) and Seattle are vying for the final three spots in the postseason.
Minnesota has already locked up the top seed, which makes them the main wild card in this late-season scenario. If the Lynx opt to rest their starters in the final one or two games of the season, that only helps the teams not named the Storm.
Here’s a look at how the bottom of the WNBA playoffs could shake out over the next week.
WNBA Playoffs seeding projection
- Minnesota Lynx (34-10)
- Atlanta Dream (30-14) *Atlanta 3-0 vs. Mercury in regular season
- Phoenix Mercury (30-14)
- Las Vegas Aces (28-16)
- New York Liberty (26-18)
- Golden State Valkyries (25-19)
- Indiana Fever (23-21) *Indiana 3-0 vs. Storm in regular season
- Seattle Storm (23-21)
First one out: Los Angeles Sparks (21-23)
The final three seeds plus the Sparks are what really matter here. The only change at the top from the current seeding is the Phoenix Mercury jumping the Las Vegas Aces for the third seed, with Phoenix closing out its regular season on a nine-game winning streak. Las Vegas has a tougher closing schedule, and this projection has them splitting their final four games.
Seattle squeezes in as the eighth seed, splitting their final two games. Even though they finish with the same record as Indiana, the Fever hold a decisive regular-season tiebreaker over the Storm for the seventh seed.
The Storm get lucky with Los Angeles’ remaining schedule. Even though Seattle has done everything it can to make life harder for itself, the team gets one final break with the Sparks suffering losses to the Dream and Mercury — sinking their playoff hopes.
Here’s the projected remaining results for the bottom three seeds and the Sparks to explain the final standings.
Golden State Valkyries: 22-18 (4 games remaining)
Vs. Dallas – W
Vs. Minnesota – L
At Seattle – W
At Minnesota – W
Projected final record: 25-19
Indiana Fever: 21-20 (3 games remaining)
Vs. Chicago – W
At Washington – L
Vs. Minnesota – W
Projected final record: 23-21
Seattle Storm: 22-20 (2 games remaining)
Vs. NY – W
Vs. GS – L
Projected final record: 23-21
Los Angeles Sparks: 19-21 (4 games remaining)
At Atlanta – L
Vs. Dallas – W
At Phoenix – L
Vs. Las Vegas – W
Projected final record: 21-23
Keep in mind that if the Storm and Sparks somehow end up with the same record, which is possible, Los Angeles also holds the tiebreaker over Seattle, forcing them out of the playoffs. If the Storm win their final two games, Los Angeles can’t get into the postseason. Anything less leaves the door open.
Seattle has lost two of its three games against the Valkyries this season, and it still has one more game against them. The Storm will have to play inspired basketball to get through Golden State, which is also competing for improved playoff positioning.
Golden State’s season-ending win against Minnesota also assumes that the Lynx will rest their starters at the very end of their schedule.
Looking ahead
Seattle earning the eighth seed somehow gives them a slightly better matchup. The Storm have been excellent against the league-leading Lynx this season, winning two of four matchups in the regular season — including a 21-point comeback in the last contest on Aug. 28.
The Storm might be the one team the Lynx don’t want to see in the first, three-game round of the playoffs. Only Seattle and Atlanta have beaten Minnesota twice. Whether that momentum carries over to the playoffs remains to be seen, but the Storm do have a decent chance of pulling off the biggest upset of the 2025 postseason.
