Preview: Gonzaga Set to Face Oregon State in WCC Tournament Semifinals
LAS VEGAS, Nev. – After four-seeded Oregon State (16-16, 9-9) pulled out a slim 78-77 quarterfinals win over five-seed San Francisco on Sunday, the Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-3, 16-2) finally know their first opponent in the WCC tournament. The Zags and Beavers will square off on Monday in the Orleans Arena at 6 PM PT, with the winner advancing to the conference championship game on Tuesday.
These two teams met just once during the regular season, with the contest being GU’s first action since one of the worst losses in its program’s history, an 87-80 defeat to Portland. To say Gonzaga responded on the road against OSU would be an understatement, as it topped the Beavers 81-61 on February 7 and featured WCC Player of the Year Graham Ike matching his career-high in scoring with 35 points.
But the Beavers have won four of their six games since that blowout loss, so how do they stack up this time around versus the Bulldogs?
Ike’s Dominance
There are times, although rare, when Zags forward Graham Ike can be less effective, most commonly against bigger and taller forwards or centers, such as in his team’s 101-61 loss to Michigan, and in the second half in GU’s last contest against Saint Mary’s. OSU boasts three different big men who outsize Ike, but he seldom shows fear against any matchup and certainly didn’t during the Bulldogs’ 20-point victory over the Beavers.
He was uber-efficient from the field, shooting 13-of-18 and staying aggressive on his attempts near the basket. Obviously, Gonzaga can’t ask Ike to flirt with his career-high point total every night, and Oregon State will almost certainly place more focus on him in the semifinals, but asking the All-American nominee to keep up his dominant stretch of play – on both ends – will go a long way in pushing the Zags to the final game of the tournament.
Setting the Tone Defensively
Despite Ike scoring 19 of his 35 points in the first half, GU only went into the locker room up by four. A trend that carried over from the loss to the Pilots, the Bulldogs’ defensive effort left much to be desired during their first 20 minutes against OSU. More specifically, when things are going wrong for Gonzaga defensively, it is allowing a lot of made three-pointers.
In the first half, the Beavers knocked down five of their seven attempts from deep. They made five more in the second half, but it took them four more tries to get there. Oregon State was also outscored 43-27 in the last 20 minutes, and looked out of rhythm on offense much more frequently in the second period. Ranking fourth in the WCC in three-point percentage and having four players shooting at least 36% from beyond the arc, keeping Oregon State at bay from distance will be a key for the Zags in this one, especially considering they are one of the worst teams in the conference when shooting from deep.
Forward Emmanuel Innocenti sets the tone for GU as its point-of-attack defender, and if he is on point, OSU will have a tough time creating space in the half-court. But the real key is Jalen Warley, who has missed the Bulldogs’ last two games due to a bruised quad, and has the versatility of defending at a high level on the perimeter and on bigs down low. Warley’s effectiveness and logged minutes have dropped over the last month as he’s played through the injury, but heading into Monday’s game, it will be 15 days since he last suited up. Gonzaga’s personnel should be enough to handle the Beavers as is, but Warley’s presence puts the unit over the top defensively.
Replicating Records?
Ball security has been a staple for the Zags all season, as they posted the conference’s lowest turnover total and best turnover margin. But it reached a pinnacle in their previous win over Oregon State, tying a program-low two turnovers while racking up 20 assists. Protecting the basketball is always of the utmost importance when the calendar flips to March, but if the Bulldogs can produce at a similar rate, starting against OSU, it would go a long way.
GU’s primary ball-handlers, Braeden Smith and Mario Saint-Supéry, totaled six and five assists, respectively, and Smith committed the only turnover between the two. Neither are necessarily depended on for their production as scorers, interchanging as the starting point guard throughout the year, but if they can replicate an ability to be high-level facilitators while not putting the ball in harm’s way, Gonzaga’s chances to keep moving on will multiply.
By this time, the Bulldogs are no stranger to the long period between games, as they’re well-accustomed to being one of the last teams to play their first game of the WCC tournament. Not to mention being run off the court two Saturdays ago against the Gaels, the Zags should have all the motivation necessary to take care of business. But looking ahead of an opponent is a possibility, and as proved already for GU this season, anyone can be beaten.
