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# 10 Over/Under Predictions for the Seattle Mariners in 2026
- URL: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/over-under-predictions-seattle-mariners-2026/
- Published: 2026-03-08T20:35:31.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-08T05:56:10.000Z
- Author: Nick Lee
- Tags: Analysis, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Logan Gilbert, Randy Arozarena, Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are set to begin one of the most anticipated seasons in franchise history. After getting closer to the World Series than ever before in 2025, Seattle has some serious momentum heading in 2026.

With that, let’s set the table for the 2026 MLB season with 10 Mariners-themed “over/under” scenarios and dive into whether or not the M’s will hit the over:

### Cal Raleigh: 39.5 Home Runs (per FanDuel)

Let’s start with the individual one most will think of first. Asking Cal Raleigh to hit 60 homers again is blatantly unfair. Heck, he could actually win MVP in 2026 and not even flirt with that mark. That was truly a historic season that will be nearly impossible to duplicate.

FanDuel puts Raleigh’s 2026 homer mark at 39.5 homers. That certainly seems low, given he reached a mark only guys named Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Maris, Babe Ruth, Sammy Sosa, and Aaron Judge have also reached.

Still, a drop-off is likely. Only two players in MLB history, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire, have hit 60-plus home runs in back-to-back seasons. And let’s just say, they might have had “help.”

However, expecting the Mariners’ catcher to reach 40 is much more realistic and almost expected. It feels like the only reason he drops below 40 dingers the year after swatting 60 is an injury.

**Prediction*: Over 39.5 HR*

### Julio Rodriguez: 30.5 Stolen Bases

For the second time in his first four seasons with the Mariners, Rodriguez notched a 30-homer, 30-steal season in 2025\. He became the first Mariner ever to notch multiple 30-30 seasons in Seattle. Can he do it again?

FanGraph’s ZiPS projections have him getting very close, with 29 homers and 27 steals in 2026\. With Dan Wilson back at the helm, I think the Mariners will go with the old “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality here. Let J-Rod run.

**Prediction*: Over 30.5 SB*

### Colt Emerson: 81.5 Games Played in MLB

The Mariners’ top prospect, and one of the best position player prospects in all of baseball, is banging down the door to make the big league roster. At just 19 years old last year, Emerson posted an above-average 133 wRC+ in Double-A (meaning, 33% better than league average at the plate).

Unfortunately, it’s been something of a slow go for Emerson at the plate this spring. He is 5-for-23 (.217) with just one extra-base hit and a lackluster .573 OPS. Spring stats certainly aren’t the end-all, be-all, but it did feel like Emerson needed a strong spring to actually make the club out of Peoria. It feels like he is destined for at least April in Tacoma. Will he play half the season with the Mariners?

At this point, with J.P. Crawford at shortstop, Brendan Donovan and Cole Young holding down third and second bases, there isn’t a clear runway for Emerson to get lots of at bats. It makes sense to get him a few more weeks or even months with consistent at bats in the minors, barring injuries of course.

**Prediction*: Under 81.5 games played in MLB*

### Logan Gilbert: 199.5 strikeouts

This is basically asking if Logan Gilbert will have his second career 200-strikeout season. Frankly, the only thing stopping him from doing so is health. In 2024, he logged 208 2/3 innings, which, in this day and age, led all MLB. That helped him get to the 220 strikeout level. Gilbert is one of the better “workhorse” starters in baseball.

He almost always goes at least six innings, which gives him a good chance at 200 strikeouts if he can reach 30-plus starts again. He only made 25 starts last season and still reached 173 strikeouts. I like those odds.

*Prediction: Over 199.5 strikeouts*

### Josh Naylor: 0.799 On-Base Plus Slugging

Naylor clearly enjoyed playing for the Mariners after the deadline trade sent him to Seattle for last year’s playoff push. He batted .299 with a stellar .831 OPS in 54 games for the Mariners. In the postseason, he reached another level, hitting three homers with an MVP-level .967 OPS.

Now, if Naylor rolls out a .900-plus OPS for the entirety of 2026, the Mariners might win over 100 games. That might not be realistic. What is worth is discussing is, can Naylor maintain an .800 OPS? Granted, this will be his first full season in Seattle. We all know what it’s like watching the Mariners try to hit at T-Mobile Park in April and May. The heavy, cooler air depresses offense. It might be tough to ask Naylor to get to an .800 OPS for the full season, which he has done twice in his seven seasons. Still, an OPS even approaching .800 is solid, bordering on All-Star level.

**Prediction*: Under .799.5 OPS*

### Randy Arozarena: 55.5 Extra Base Hits

This is a big season for Arozarena. This is a contract year for him, as he hits free agency after 2026\. His 4.0 WAR in 2025 was the second highest of his career and highest since 2021\. He had a hot summer in Seattle but tapered off as the leaves changed colors last year.

Arozarena is usually good for a bundle of extra-base hits, given his athleticism. He collected 60 extra-base hits (32 doubles, 27 homers, 1 triple). The year before, he posted 53 extra base hits (33 doubles, 20 home runs). Can he get back to around those two numbers again?

In a contract year? Bet against Arozarena at your own risk.

**Prediction*: Over 55.5 extra-base hits*

### Andres Munoz: 38.5 saves

Munoz anchored the back of the Mariners bullpen in 2025, notching 38 saves, third-most in Major League Baseball. Saves are a fickle thing. Your team obviously needs to be good in order for a closer to wrack up big save numbers, but also, they need to be in enough close games late to earn the official save.

This is basically asking if Munoz can re-set his career high in saves, after never having more than 22 previously. Munoz could end up being an elite closer again, even an All-Star one again, and still not get to 38 saves. Only three closers did in all the league last year. But Munoz is definitely on the short list of closers who could reach this number. Still, it’s a tough stat to rely on year-by-year.

**Prediction*: Under 38.5 saves*

### Brendan Donovan: 0.360 On-Base Percentage

Seattle’s “new shiny toy” will spearhead the batting order. Donovan is your prototypical grinding leadoff hitter. Tough to strike out, tough to put away, and very annoying to face. He has a career .361 on-base percentage. If we insert that mark into the 2025 Mariners, he would have led the entire club.

Having a .360-plus on-base mark year after year is hard to ask (league average is .315). Donovan has shown consistency over four years. He surpassed that mark in two seasons prior.

Like Naylor, Donovan is going to get a full dose of trying to hit in Seattle in the early months of the year. Still, a mark approaching .360 would be exactly what Seattle was hoping for when they traded for him.

**Prediction*: Under .360.5 OBP*

### Emerson Hancock: 90.5 innings pitched

Hancock was one of the main benefactors of the Mariners experiencing health issues in their starting rotation in the summer of 2025\. Bryce Miller, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert all missed chunks of time. Hancock became the top depth option to make spot starts. He ended up tossing 90 innings for Seattle, to the tune of a 4.90 ERA, making 16 starts.

In seven innings so far this Spring Training, he has a similar 4.91 ERA. It’s clear there is no spot for him on this current rotation and he likely will start the year in Tacoma once again. This is also something of a make-or-break year for him, as the former first round pick is approaching 27 years old. Perhaps a role in the bullpen could serve him well. However, if the rotation once again experiences some health issues, it’s likely Hancock will be one of the first names called again.

Given a few additions Seattle made to the staff, like Dane Dunning and Cooper Criswell, he might not get the same workload.

**Prediction*: Under 90.5 innings pitched*

### Wins: 89.5

Now for the main event of “over/unders.” Per Vegas Insider, the Mariners’ official over/under wins mark is at a robust 89.5\. Only the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets have a higher mark. Are the Mariners better than last year, when they finished 90-72?

Given the addition of Brendan Donovan and a full season of Josh Naylor at first base, along with a solid bench bat in Rob Refsnyder, and banking on better health luck with the starting rotation, let’s be optimistic in a season that feels destined to be great.

**Prediction*: Over 89.5 wins*