Analysis: Patriots’ Offense Presents Myriad of Challenges for Seahawks in Super Bowl LX
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New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) rushes against Seattle Seahawks defensive end Leonard Williams (99) for a touchdown during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images [/caption]
SANTA CLARA, Calif. - In a battle for the coveted Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LX, the Seattle Seahawks’ top-ranked defense will meet their match against Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, who finished second in the league in points per game with a balanced attack.
Going into Sunday’s big game, interestingly enough, Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald will test wits against decorated multi-time Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels for the first time. But while he hasn’t competed directly against McDaniels before, he’s well aware of how his scheme has operated in the past when Tom Brady was orchestrating at the controls and how the system has evolved to cater to a rising superstar in Maye, who may have a shot at earning MVP honors later this week after leading the Patriots to an AFC East title and a return to the Super Bowl for the first time since Brady’s departure in 2020.
“You've got to give them a lot of credit. It's an incredibly efficient offense. They've been explosive,” Macdonald told reporters last Friday. “There's definitely some things that they're probably doing that's exclusive to Drake, as they should. But that's what you'd expect from a great offense is to have a great foundation and be able to build around your players.”
Looking towards Sunday’s rematch from Super Bowl XLIX, what major challenges will the Patriots’ high-powered offense present for Macdonald and the Seahawks? With statistics courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, here are four areas of concern - along with one potential unexpected advantage - to keep an eye on at Levis Stadium:
1. Prolific and efficient, Drake Maye belongs in the upper echelon of deep ball passers in the NFL.
In terms of a sophomore leap, few quarterbacks have ever matched Maye’s massive jump from a decent rookie campaign. After throwing 15 touchdowns in his first year in Foxboro, he more than doubled that total with 31 passing touchdowns and just eight interceptions running McDaniels’ scheme, while also adding plenty of flair as a dangerous runner rushing for 450 yards and four touchdowns. That dual-threat capability is the type of problem that can keep defensive play callers such as Macdonald up at night.
While Maye’s mobility and scrambling talents have been a major part of his ascent into the MVP discussion and slowing him down using his legs will be a crucial part of Seattle’s game plan this week, however, his propensity for assaulting opponents on downfield throws has been his greatest weapon. Playing to his quarterback’s strengths, McDaniels opened up the playbook to let the young gunslinger loose launching the ball on vertical routes and go balls, evidenced by the fact 14.2% of his pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards through the air, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
Maye capitalized fully on the confidence of his play caller, averaging a league-high 9.1 air yards per attempt this season and posting a remarkable 18.4% explosive pass rate, which also led all qualified quarterbacks. In 20 regular season and playoff games, he has completed 38 throws traveling 20 or more yards and tossed 11 touchdowns on such throws, ranking in the top five in both categories, all while being charged with just one turnover worthy play by Pro Football Focus. That’s insane efficiency on the toughest throws to consistently connect on, and the Seahawks will have to have their pass rush ready to roll to limit those opportunities on Sunday.
2. The Patriots have far more than Stefon Diggs to inflict damage on opposing secondaries.
More times than not, quarterbacks receive the credit for elevating the supporting cast around them. But as he did in Buffalo for Josh Allen early in the star signal caller’s career, Diggs deserves such props for helping elevate Maye’s game, providing a reliable, high-volume target who led New England with 85 receptions for 1,013 yards and also produced a team-best 23 explosive receptions after signing in free agency in March. He’s the clear No. 1 target in McDaniels’ offense and should be regarded as such in Seattle’s game plan preparation, likely to see a big dose of Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen in coverage.
With that said, after several seasons struggling to field a quality receiving corps, the Patriots have plenty of other firepower to complement Diggs on the outside. Hunter Henry has thrived in an offense well-equipped to feature tight ends, racking up 18 explosive receptions and scoring seven touchdowns. While he didn’t match his reception total from the season prior, Kayshon Boutte has been a revelation as a big play threat, snagging 17 explosive receptions on 33 total catches with six touchdowns for a ridiculous 51% explosive reception rate, second behind only Alec Pierce of the Colts.
In addition to Boutte, Mack Hollins has quietly been an unexpected source of big plays snagging passes from Maye, as the 32-year-old veteran had 14 explosive catches and produced a rock solid 30% explosive play rate this season. Demario Douglas has also shined in spurts as a dynamic downfield target, hauling in eight explosive receptions while averaging 14.4 yards per reception this season, giving Maye no shortage of talented wideouts and tight ends to distribute the football to and create headaches for Macdonald and his staff putting together a defensive blueprint for this week.
3. New England boasts a thunder and lightning package rivaling any backfield duo in the league.
For as well as Maye has played this season, the Patriots haven’t deployed a pass-heavy offense by any means. In fact, with the sixth-most rushing attempts in the NFL this season, McDaniels has leaned a ton on the running back tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and Treveyon Henderson out of the backfield to provide complementary balance for the young quarterback, helping the team finish sixth in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns.
One of the most underrated backs in the league, the 227-pound Stevenson fits the bill as the Patriots’ battering ram, presenting a physical, downhill running style that meshes well with McDaniels’ scheme. Even while missing three games due to injury, he has racked up 638 yards after contact in the regular season and playoffs, forcing 45 missed tackles and averaging a strong 3.52 yards after contact per carry, tied with Colts star Jonathan Taylor for fifth-best in the league. He also has showed off underrated burst as a chunk play threat, evidenced by his 19 runs of 10 yards or more and 10 rushes surpassing 15 yards.
After a slow start to his rookie season, Henderson finally started to live up to expectations as a dynamic home run threat for the Patriots in the second half. At the end of the regular season, his 39% breakaway run rate ranked third in the NFL, just a nudge ahead of Seahawks star Ken Walker III. The former Ohio State star led the team with 11 breakaway runs of 15 or more yards while forcing 31 missed tackles, flashing a blend of speed and power that made him worthy of a second round selection last April. While he and Stevenson had similar breakaway rates, Henderson has the extra juice to go the distance any time he touches the ball and keeping him bottled up will be imperative for the Seahawks on Sunday.
4. Sack numbers can be misleading - and yet accurate? - assessing New England’s underrated pass protection.
Sacks tend to be frowned upon as a means of evaluating offensive play, and for good reason. They typically result in big losses of yardage and put offenses behind the sticks, making it difficult to overcome such mistakes. But for the Patriots, a high sack total with Maye being brought down 47 times in the regular season didn’t hold the group back much and doesn’t reflect much on the offensive line, in large part due to the primary reason why so many of those sacks happened in the first place.
As Seahawks fans will remember watching Russell Wilson in his prime years, Maye has a tendency to hang onto the football for a long time in the pocket while also habitually looking to extend plays with his legs if he can’t find an open receiver early in his progressions, putting extra strain on the offensive line. He averaged 3.10 seconds per dropback during the regular season, the third-longest average among qualified quarterbacks, to go with a league-high 61 scrambles. With that, opponents racked up plenty of sacks on extended plays, and it shouldn’t be a surprise at all that PFF charged Maye with 20 of his 47 sacks and 23.2% of all pressures, ranking in the top five in both statistics.
Keeping those numbers in mind, the Patriots have actually been quite effective protecting Maye, as they received the fifth-best pass blocking team grade (72.7) from Pro Football Focus and finished a respectable 13th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric (64%). As Macdonald noted on Friday, there’s a balancing act to trying to rush him aggressively while also being cognizant of rush lanes to prevent him from escaping as a runner, and mixing in spy assignments for Ernest Jones and Nick Emmanwori may be on the menu as part of the strategy.
“We're going through that process right now of how we want to play. I think the key is trying to create as many of those situations as possible,” Macdonald explained. “But he is a tremendous player. He really is. He's strong. He's fast. You know all the things, great arm talent, great decision making. We've got to be on our stuff up front.”
If there’s a silver lining for the Seahawks going into Sunday, however, the playoffs have gone by a different script for the Patriots to this point. In three playoff games, Maye has been sacked 15 times, nine more times than any other quarterback in the postseason, and only five of those sacks and 20% of total pressures have been charged to the second-year signal caller. New England’s front line has allowed a shocking 45.5% pressure to sack rate with rookie tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson combining to allow five sacks and 22 pressures, showing vulnerability that a talented Seattle defensive line will aim to take advantage of.
