Analysis: What Does Underlying Data Say about Mariners’ Hitting Abyss?

There have been a lot of bad results with the bat in the first 13 games the Mariners have played in 2026, and for every bad result, there are 1,000 ways to quantify and describe it: worst in the league in average (.184), on-base percentage (.280), and slugging percentage (.301). The league’s second-lowest hard-hit rate (34.2%) and highest whiff rate (32.9%). Bat speed declines for Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and others. 

But with 149 games left to go, how much of this is actually meaningful and predictive? How much of it is pure noise?

The top lines are too early to tell right now; any answers will come from underlying data. 

There isn’t much that can be told from the first 13 games as to which disappointing slash stats are because a good player is in a slump and which are because the player is plain overmatched. Both Aaron Judge and Willi Castro entered Friday with a .222 batting average, but it’s safe to say that their career OPSes of 1.025 and .696, respectively, are good indicators of who is more likely to get hot.