Big Ten Picks: Huskies Must Avoid Apple Cup No Show Against Cougars
University of Washington football players hoist the Apple Cup after beating the Washington State Cougars on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022 at Martin Stadium in Pullman Washington. Credit: Washington Athletics
Let the games begin. The real ones, anyway.
Though a couple of powerhouse teams have this week off. It seemed like most of the Big Ten took the first three weeks off, but there were games against a whole lot of directional schools and the UC Davis-types of the college football world.
There are five conference games this week, and three other teams face a rival or a big-time opponent. Which brings us to the Apple Cup.
Washington heads to Pullman for the 117th Apple Cup (4:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS). Unless you’ve awakened from a coma this week, you know that Washington is now in the 18-team Big Ten and Washington State is in the two-team Pac-12. And, there's no leftover turkey during this game for you. Instead of around Thanksgiving, one of the in-state rivals will claim this Cup in September.
Washington State won the game last year at Lumen Field in Seattle in Jedd Fisch’s first season at Washington. I imagine things are going to be a little different this season after significant changes for both schools over the past year.
The Huskies lead the overall series 76-34-6 since the first game was played 125 years ago, and have not lost two in a row since Tyrone Willingham’s 2008 team dropped a second straight against the Cougars toward the end of his disastrous tenure. Since then, Washington has won 12 of 15 matchups, though WSU has claimed two of the past four.
Here are some things to look for early in Saturday’s game:
Emotion and Motivation Levels
While talent is always a factor, motivation and emotion are a big part of rivalry games. Washington rarely loses the Apple Cup when it has a major motivation to win it. The Huskies often lose it when they underestimate the Cougars or don’t have a reason — aside from pride — to win it.
Washington State had a lot of the motivation boxes checked last year for a win. Then-WSU coach Jake Dickert got his Cougars angry about being left behind by Washington, which was among 10 schools that found other conferences while WSU and Oregon State got left holding the Pac-12 bag. That was before Dickert left for a bigger bag, and many of WSU’s top players entered the transfer portal
This year, the Huskies appear to be on a mission to avenge last year’s 24-19 loss that ended with Fisch’s questionable fourth-down goal line play call that was blown up by a prepared and motivated group of Cougs.
“Having that feeling all year, you know, of not having the trophy with us and leaving a sour taste in our mouth is one obviously we don’t want,” center Landen Hatchett said on Tuesday. “But it’s also motivating for this year, and I think we’re excited to go try to get that trophy back.”
The first few drives will tell a lot of the story. If the UW offensive and defensive lines are dominating, it’s going to be a long evening for WSU. However, if the Huskies are even slightly complacent, WSU could make a game of it.
When Jimmy Rogers replaced Dickert as head coach, he brought in a significant number of transfers from South Dakota State, where he was the head coach for two years. WSU has 75 new players on its roster this year, including three returning starters (center Brock Dieu, right tackle Christian Hilborn, running back Angel Johnson). It may take some time for WSU to put everything together again, as was the case at UW a year earlier.
WSU Quarterback Situation
Rogers opened up the quarterback competition after a 59-10 loss at North Texas last Saturday. Jaxon Potter threw three interceptions to put the defense in poor positions in the game. Dual-threat quarterback Julian Dugger went 0-for-2 and lost a fumble. Zevi Eckhaus was one of the few bright spots, going 7-for-10 for 72 yards.
Many in Coug-land were surprised Eckhaus did not win the starting job this year. He gave WSU 2024 starter John Mateer strong competition in fall camp last season before Mateer — now a Heisman contender for Oklahoma — won the job.
“Definitely a different team than we played a year ago,” Fisch said on Thursday. “Still trying to figure out who the quarterback is going to be over there. I know that they have three guys that are in a competition. They made the decision on who they’re going to go with, they just have not announced that yet.
“We’ll have to prepare for two different styles of play, which we have been doing. But we’ve also really been focusing on how we can play.”
Turnover margin
Ryan Walters’ defenses at Illinois were among the best at taking the ball away. That has not been a major strength so far this season. Safety Makell Esteen and cornerback Tacario Davis have the team’s two interceptions through two games. Davis, who suffered an injury while intercepting UC Davis, is “day to day” according to Fisch, and questionable for Saturday’s game. He’s traveling to Pullman, but I would be a little surprised if he plays. The Huskies have not thrown a pick through two games, and have not lost or recovered a fumble.
WSU hurt itself with five first-half turnovers against North Texas, which took advantage and built a 42-3 halftime lead. The Cougars have thrown three interceptions and lost three fumbles this year while taking the ball away just twice.
The Huskies don’t turn the ball over very often, and WSU gave it up a lot last week. The Cougs need the inverse to stay in Saturday’s game.
Running game
WSU has not been known for running the ball in recent years, but Jimmy Rogers has a history of strong running games. The Cougars have struggled to get the ground game going this year despite a 2-1 start. WSU has just 206 rushing yards on 86 attempts (2.4 YPC). If the sacks are taken out of the equation, it’s still pretty dismal: 241 yards, 82 attempts, 2.9 yards per carry.
For UW, it remains to be seen what it will look like against the top of the Big Ten, but Jonah Coleman has 277 yards and seven touchdowns by himself in two games. The Cougars will need to bottle him up early and force the Huskies into third-and-long.
Big Ten Picks
Thanks a lot, Deshaun Foster. Before getting canned by UCLA, Foster gave me a parting gift — the one blemish on my otherwise perfect straight-up Big Ten picks. I forgot that the Rose Bowl is not a home-field advantage at this juncture, even against a perceived lesser opponent like New Mexico.
There will be many more bad picks, however, likely starting this week when there are fewer cupcakes on the Big Ten menu. We’ve got some real games this week, folks. I hope you got the household chores done last week so you can buckle up for the next few Saturdays.
Iowa -2.5 at Rutgers
As Jedd Fisch can tell you, Friday games in Piscataway, New Jersey are no picnic. Rutgers 16, Iowa 10
Maryland at Wisconsin -9.5
Maryland heads to Dairyland, and the Terrapins are going to get everything but their milk money taken from them in this one. Wisconsin 31-16
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon -34.5
Like they always say, “You never know in a rivalry game.” Actually, I’m pretty sure we know this time. Phil Knight might even turn this one off in the third quarter. Oregon 50-14
No. 21 Michigan -1.5 at Nebraska
One of these teams begins disappointing their fans in this game, and I’m not sure which one, to be honest. I’ll go with the home team in a mild upset: Nebraska 29-28
Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame -25.5
The Irish are ranked despite being 0-2, and are heavy favorites over the Boilermakers. Notre Dame may well finish the season 10-2, and you can’t go 10-2 without first being 1-2. Notre Dame 48, Purdue 13
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana -6.5
Big I statement game for the winner. I say the home I takes this one. Indiana 27-21
Byes: Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, UCLA
The Pick
Washington is the more talented team and may have more motivation to win it this year. That’s a bad combination for the Cougs. Provided that the Huskies aren’t thinking too much about next week’s home game against No. 1 Ohio State, I expect the Huskies to dominate this game. Washington was favored by around 12 points a week ago, and that number jumped to 20.5 early this week. I don’t think it’s enough.
Washington 44-13
Last week: 14-1 overall, 10-5 against the spread
Season: 48-1, 31-18 against the spread
