Home Run Derby Preview: How Will Mariners’ Cal Raleigh Fare Against Stacked Field of Sluggers?

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After hitting 38 home runs in the first half, Seattle Mariners star Cal Raleigh will participate in the Home Run Derby for the first time in his career. Credit: Cal Raleigh/Instagram [/caption]

The first half of the season is over, and eight of the biggest power bats in baseball are gathering in Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia for the 2025 Home Run Derby. And for the third time in four years, a Mariner will be headlining the event.

This time, that Mariner is catcher Cal Raleigh. He has had a truly gargantuan season so far, hitting 38 home runs before the All-Star Break – the most ever in the American League and the second-most in baseball history behind Barry Bonds in 2001.

Raleigh will go up against seven other stars from around the league in a competition that requires not just power, but extensive and consistent power. For those who didn’t watch the 2024 Derby, the rules have changed since a member of the Mariners last competed in a Home Run Derby. 

Each contestant is allowed 40 pitches – that must be thrown in three minutes or less – during the main section of a round. Then the contestants have a bonus period where they try to hit as many home runs as possible before recording three “outs,” defined as any swing that is not a home run. Any homer over 425 feet during the bonus period awards the contestant another out. 

In effect, it is a combination of the old 10-out system and the newer timed system. 

There will be three rounds of play, with the first round unmatched (the top four players advancing to the second round) and the second round seeded by the amount of homers hit in the first round, with the one seed playing the four seed and the two seed playing the three seed in a bracket.

The final round will be shorter, with the main round at two minutes for 27 pitches. Ties in the first round will be settled by the distance of the contestants’ longest home run; ties in the second and final rounds will be settled by swing-offs.

Truist Park has dimensions that favor a left-handed hitter. It is 325 feet down the line in right and 375 feet to right center, but 335 feet down the left field line and 385 to left center. In addition, straightaway left is bowed outwards and is significantly further away than straightaway right, where the wall runs in a line from the foul pole to right center.

So who has the edge? Let’s go over the eight Home Run Derby contestants in 2025:

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Long a key member of the Minnesota Twins – but long plagued with injury – Buxton has stayed healthy in 2025 and put up a tremendous year. He’s currently slashing .289/.351/.574 with 21 home runs and 56 RBIs. 

Buxton has hit for some pretty serious distance, putting up a 479-foot shot as his season’s best. Of all the contestants, Buxton has the highest no doubter percentage (defined as a homer that would be a homer in all 30 MLB stadiums) among the contestants at 76.2 percent. But the Twins’ center fielder is a pull-heavy right-hander, which is a disadvantage in Truist given the aforementioned dimensions.

Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays’ third baseman has had a breakout year in 2025 with 23 home runs and a .252/.292/.499 slash line. But compared to some of the other stars in this list, Caminero might have an uphill battle.

For starters, Caminero is not a moonshot hitter. The longest home run of his season was 425 feet exactly, the minimum for getting an extra out in the bonus period. Caminero has a 43.5 percent no doubter percentage and therefore will struggle to get extra outs in the bonus periods. And while he has definite pop, it isn’t the kind of effortless raw power that some of the other contestants have – his exit velocity is just 69th percentile league-wide. While his right-handedness is another potential weakness in Truist, Caminero does spray his home runs across the field.

Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees

When it comes to a Home Run Derby contestant, you might not think a 5-11, 184-pound second baseman would be the ideal candidate. But Chisholm has a good amount of pop, cracking 17 home runs in the first half of the 2025 season.

When Chisholm connects with full force, it can go a long way. His longest homer this year was his very first, which soared 442 feet. But his no doubter percentage is 35.3 percent, so he, like Caminero, will have issues getting extra outs. He does have the advantage of being a lefty hitter in Truist Park.

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz doesn’t have a high batting average, but he has incredible raw power that will excellently suit him in the Home Run Derby. He currently has 16 dingers on the year for the Bucs, many of those being absolute moonshots.

Cruz has some of the hardest hit balls ever recorded, including a 123-mile per hour frozen rope that soared into the Allegheny River in a nanosecond. He even has two homers over 450 feet: one 463 feet and one 458 feet. He has a no doubter percentage of 62.5 percent. In addition, he is a left-handed hitter, which will help him in Truist – though it’s not like many of his homers are very close to being outs anyway.

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

Braves first baseman Matt Olson was slotted in as a replacement for Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. bowed out of the competition with back discomfort. But Olson is no slouch when it comes to homers, cracking 17 so far in the 2025 season (though it is a far lesser pace than his league-leading 54 in 2023). 

However, Olson might have some serious trouble getting those extra outs – with the lowest no doubter percentage of the eight contestants at 23.5 percent – and will have to rely on consistently belting balls out during the main rounds. But he is nothing if not consistent, and he also benefits from being a left-hander at his home ballpark.

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

The MLB leader in home runs with an unfathomable 38 before the break, Raleigh is having one of the best catching seasons of all time, he’s in the running for MVP, and he’s also the betting favorite to win the Home Run Derby.

Raleigh is the only switch hitter in the Derby and has indicated that he’ll bat on both sides, but will focus on the left side due to the ballpark. He has blasted some big moonshots this year, topping out at 440 feet twice, and has a no doubter percentage of 42.1 percent, falling in the middle of the pack among the contestants. But it is consistency that has gotten him to his titanic home run totals this season, and that consistency is what makes him the odds-on favorite.

Brent Rooker, Athletics

With all the chaos surrounding the – for now Sacramento, though not officially – Athletics, you might not expect them to put forward a Home Run Derby contestant. But the 30-year old right fielder has been hitting with good power for some time, with 30 homers in 2023, 39 in 2024, and 20 so far this year.

Rooker’s longest home run this season was a 440-footer, same as Raleigh. But as far as his no doubter percentage, Rooker sits lower than Raleigh at 35 percent, and he also has the disadvantage of being a right-hander. But Rooker’s ability to consistently hit the launch angle sweet spot (between eight and 32 degrees) will be very useful, and we could see him put up good, consistent work in the main rounds.

James Wood, Washington Nationals

Our final contestant is the Nationals’ 22-year old breakout left fielder. With a slash line of .278/.381/.534 and 24 home runs on the year, Wood is a formidable force at the plate. And he has smoked some far-flying missiles, too – he very well could provide the best distance entertainment of the eight contestants.

Wood’s farthest distance this season has been 451 feet, which he has done twice. Seattle fans might remember some of his blasts, as he hit the batter’s eye one night in T-Mobile and the Hit It Here Cafe facade the next. His no doubter percentage of 54.2 percent bears this out clearly: he will have no trouble getting extra outs in the bonus periods. He is also a lefty hitter, so he has that going for him.

Completely Unqualified Prediction

Now comes the part where I give my prediction. Do not in any way take this as qualified, informed, or anything similar. It’s just a little scenario of how I think things might turn out in one of the most unpredictable All-Star events in any sport.

We’re going to see some fireworks in the first round. I predict Buxton will put up at least one ridiculous tape-measure mountain shot, while Olson and Rooker will each go through a stretch of consistent mashing in the first round. Caminero will be caught on his back foot, while Chisholm will start slow but make things interesting as his time winds down in the first round.

But after the first round is up, I think the top four advancing will be Wood, Raleigh, Cruz, and Rooker, in that order. Olson will be the nearest miss, barely falling below Rooker’s total, while Chisholm, Buxton, and Caminero will round out the list.

But who knows? We’ll find out later today.