Examining Seahawks’ High Stakes QB Contingency Plan
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Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold rears back to throw during a regular season game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. [/caption]
Sending shockwaves throughout the NFL on Friday, the Seattle Seahawks made the stunning move to start over at quarterback by trading Pro Bowl starter Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders, leaving a massive hole under center only a few days before the start of free agency.
Enjoying far better continuity at the most important position in professional sports than the majority of league executives over the past 15 years, Seahawks general manager John Schneider hasn’t had to orchestrate many changes at quarterback during his tenure, and when he has, he has been highly successful maintaining quality play. Striking gold landing Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft and later unearthing a historic redemption project in Smith as his successor, he has had the same two starters in place during a 13-year span with 10 playoff berths and a Super Bowl win.
Though this won’t be the first time Schneider has had to make a change at quarterback, however, how the process unfolds finding Smith’s replacement - both short and long-term, starting with this upcoming free agency cycle and potentially lasting into 2026 - may be the most consequential sequence of his entire career and carries the weight to dictate how the next five to 10 years play out for the franchise.
With only Sam Howell and Jaren Hall currently on the roster following Smith’s departure, Seattle has already been linked to two notable free agents in Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers, a pair of veterans at far different stages in their respective careers. The first name reported after the Smith trade was announced, the former has already been established as the favorite to become the franchise’s next quarterback, while it remains to be seen whether the latter actually is a viable option.
Coming off a breakout season in Minnesota where he threw 35 touchdown passes and earned his first career Pro Bowl selection, Darnold offers the most intrigue as a franchise quarterback from this year’s free agent crop. Just 27 years old, he finally found a home in an offense catered to his strengths, averaging 7.9 yards per completion and tying for the NFL lead with 10 touchdown passes traveling 20 or more yards while sprinkling in plenty of play action concepts along with bootleg and rollout action to get the underrated athlete moving out of the pocket.
Additionally, the former top-10 pick has an interesting connection to the Seahawks in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The two worked together in San Francisco in 2023 when Kubiak served as the 49ers pass game coordinator, and while Darnold only played in one game that season as a backup to Brock Purdy, that step proved to be an important one that set the stage for his career year with the Vikings.
Considering Kubiak and Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell each herald from coaching trees linked to Mike Shanahan, though their offensive systems aren’t identical and have stark differences, there will be plenty of carryover that would allow Darnold to hit the ground running compared to other veteran alternatives and his skill set fits well with what Kubiak asks of his quarterbacks. Schneider had to have a concrete plan before deciding to trade Smith and going after the ex-USC star who still has youth and upside in his corner would make the most sense.
But the Seahawks won’t be the only suitor seeking a new quarterback, as teams such as the Steelers, Jets, and Titans among others lay waiting in the weeds. With Darnold being the best combo of youth, recent production, and remaining potential on the market, the Seahawks may need to be ready to engage in a bidding war if they want to sign him, which could push the contract up into the $40 to $45 million per year range that they weren’t keen on paying Smith.
If the price tag exceeds what the Seahawks are willing to pay or Darnold prefers another team with better weapons - ironically, Pittsburgh may now fit the bill with Metcalf and George Pickens at receiver - Schneider will have to pivot to plan B. It’s anyone’s guess who would be the preference in that scenario, but a 41-year old Rodgers would not be the most exciting alternative for a number of reasons.
For one, Rodgers quickly became one of Seattle’s most despised nemeses battling against Wilson in the early 2010s as Green Bay served as one of the franchise’s top rivals during the height of the “Legion of Boom” era. Most fans would have major issues with seeing him in a Seahawks uniform, especially considering his controversial statements and attention-seeking behavior off the field that have made him a polarizing figure at best over the years.
Secondly, the four-time MVP endured a brutal two-year stretch in New York, missing all but one game due to a torn Achilles in 2023 and returning last season to lead the Jets to a dismal 5-12 record despite posting a rock solid 28 to 11 touchdown to interception ratio. He shouldn’t be blamed entirely for the team’s failure to live up to lofty expectations, but at this stage of his career, he’s been relegated to a pocket passer who lacks the movement skills to evade pressure and extend plays, which were trademarks in his game during his peak years.
Signing Rodgers would be a one or two-year placeholder at most for Seattle, but he did serve as a mentor for Jordan Love in Green Bay, so if other options prove to be too pricey, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Schneider could turn back to a former connection from his time in Titletown, even if a large portion of the fan base would vehemently disapprove such a move.
If the Seahawks don’t intend to do more than talk to Rodgers out of due diligence, Darnold won’t be the only former first round pick worth taking a look at, as Schneider could dip into the dual threat quarterback pool assessing the fit of ex-Bears starter Justin Fields and ex-Giants starter Daniel Jones, who most recently served as backups for the Steelers and Vikings respectively.
One of the most dynamic athletes at the quarterback position in the NFL, Fields wowed at times during his three-year stint in Chicago as a runner, rushing for more than 2,200 yards with 14 touchdowns and an impressive 6.2 yards per carry average. But the former Ohio State star has had a propensity for holding on to the ball too long and taking sacks and never been able to take a significant step forward as a passer, completing 61 percent of his passes with a mediocre 1.5 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio, and Pittsburgh wound up benching him in favor of Wilson due to the offense’s inability to finish drives with touchdowns.
As for Jones, the ex-Duke standout flashed at times as a starter for the Giants, including rushing for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns to help the team end a long playoff drought and advance to the NFC Divisional Round in 2022. Like Fields, he thrived as a runner both on designed plays and as an improviser, and he did show improvement as a passer during his first few seasons in the league, including posting a 67 percent completion rate with 15 touchdowns and only five picks during that breakout 2022 campaign.
Unfortunately, after signing a massive contract extension, Jones missed most of the 2023 season with a torn ACL and last season, New York initially benched him after 10 starts before releasing him, allowing him to join Minnesota’s practice squad for the rest of the year. Teams have remained intrigued by him due to his smarts and running ability, but he simply has not been near consistent enough as a passer to be considered more than a bridge quarterback at this point and like Fields, any team that signs him would likely be in the hunt to draft a quarterback either this year or next offseason.
That last statement underscores the situation the Seahawks have now thrust themselves into. Even if Darnold’s breakthrough season proves to be a sign of things to come or someone like Fields or Jones finally harnesses all of his physical tools in the right system, there’s no guarantee either of those scenarios happen and the team must have sights set on drafting a quarterback in April or in the 2026 NFL Draft at the latest. Delaying the addition of a future starter on a rookie contract can’t happen any longer after opting only to trade for Howell and not selecting one following Wilson’s exit three years ago.
If there’s positive news on that front, after acknowledging that the draft board hasn’t fallen Seattle’s way to draft a quarterback in recent years, trading Smith and Metcalf for day two selections has gifted Schneider with the ammunition to trade up if the right prospect falls. Holding two second round picks and two third round picks in addition to the 18th overall selection, if the organization desires moving up into the top 10-15 to get Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders or Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart next month, they have the means to be able to do so. If they want to punt down the road, they can trade back and recoup higher picks for next year potentially to go after their future signal caller.
Regardless of the direction that the Seahawks chose to go in the aftermath of the Smith trade, the decisions made starting this week in free agency will have tremendous ripple effects on the construction of the rest of the roster and directly impact the timeline for climbing back into contention. With Darnold or even Rodgers under center and the right pieces added around them along the offensive line and at the skill positions, the team may still be able to be in the hunt in the NFC West, while bringing a rookie to develop on board has a chance to extend the window to contend if they hit on the right prospect.
Alternatively, if Schneider fails to acquire a quality veteran as at least a bridge and can’t use the additional draft resources acquired last week to position Seattle to select a quarterback for the future as part of his contingency plan, the decision to deal away Smith and Metcalf has a chance to blow up in his face and plunge the franchise into the cellar, putting immense pressure on his shoulders to capitalize on the situation with his job potentially now hanging in the balance.
