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# Analysis: A Deep Dive Into Mariners’ Slugger Cal Raleigh’s 2026 Struggles
- URL: https://www.emeraldcityspectrum.com/deep-dive-into-struggles-seattle-mariners-slugger-cal-raleigh/
- Published: 2026-05-11T22:07:08.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-08T05:47:54.000Z
- Author: Nick Lee
- Tags: Analysis, Cal Raleigh, Mariners

\[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="4400"\]

![  Seattle Mariners designated hitter Cal Raleigh (29) reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images  ](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/usatsi_28918743-format-original.jpg)

Seattle Mariners designated hitter Cal Raleigh (29) reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images \[/caption\]

It certainly has not been the smoothest of starts for the Seattle Mariners to open the 2026 season, especially for their star catcher Cal Raleigh. Dating back to the World Baseball Classic in March, Raleigh has been under the spotlight for all the wrong reasons.

From Handshake Gate with teammate Randy Arozarena, to his subpar hitting, Raleigh finds himself under the microscope facing plenty of scrutiny. Fair or not, the expectations are sky high. And how could they not?

After all, Raleigh became just the sixth player ever to reach 60 home runs in a season in 2025, managing to do so as a switch hitter. Once you enter the same company as Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Roger Maris, the expectations change.

Still, Raleigh has stumbled out of the gate in 2026\. Could it be the weight of those crushing expectations? Locker room trouble with Arozarena? Or just simply, the ebbs and flows of the grueling marathon that is a 162-game regular season? Or is he injured and trying to play through it?

First, lets take a look and where Raleigh stands through 41 games this year, compared to last.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/1d/f2/1df2f77b-83dd-4bc0-a6d2-6d1bb5df89a3/content/images/2026/10/picture1-format-original.png)

Ouch. Raleigh’s OPS and home runs have been basically cut in half, with his wRC+ (100 being average, higher is better) being almost 100 points lower. His barrel rate is down from 19.5% last season to a career low 12.2% in 2026\. His hard contact rate is down 10%.

So, we have established it: Raleigh is struggling mightily to start 2026, compared to his lofty standards. But why?

One theory is that nagging oblique injury. Raleigh tweaked his oblique in early May, causing him to miss a few games. However, since he has returned from that little break, he is 0-for-20, with 10 strikeouts and one walk.

Raleigh’s bat speed suggests his injury might not be the issue, however. In Sunday’s loss to the White Sox, he checked in with a bat speed of 78.4 mph on a flyout. His average bat speed during his stellar 2025 campaign was 75.2 mph.

His swing angle has not changed much from last year either. Raleigh’s attack angle dropped from 18 degrees last year to 17 now. Marginal. In fact, according to FanGraphs, his “ideal attack angle rate” is slightly improved from last season.

The biggest difference is the quality of contact. His “sweet spot” rate is down 5%. Raleigh’s average exit velocity is the biggest concern, dropping from 91.3 mph last year (79th percentile) to 86.9 mph (16th percentile).

Basically, Raleigh’s swing isn’t any slower or at a worse angle, but for one reason or another, the quality of contact simply isn’t there.

Then there’s the plate discipline issue. Raleigh’s chase rate has bumped up from 31.8% to 37% year-to-year so far. The rate at which he swings and makes contact with pitches outside of the strike zone (generally not a good idea) jumped from 51.3% to 62.7% this year. If you swing at more pitches outside of the zone, the quality of contact will be poor, thus you will not barrel up as many pitches. 

His line drive rate is down from 17.3% to 9.2%, while Raleigh’s ground ball rate is up. His average launch angle is three degrees lower. 

All this to say, it doesn’t appear to be the oblique injury that looks to be the primary issue, given his bat speeds look normal. He’s still swinging with a very similar attack angle. However, his plate discipline has gotten much worse.

It’s also not that he isn’t seeing fastballs anymore. In fact, he has a higher rate of fastballs faced this year than last season.

Let’s also not forget that switch-hitting is very hard, even when Raleigh makes it look easy at times. Right now, lefty pitchers are slicing him up to the tune of a .136 average and .405 OPS. It seems that his plate discipline deteriorates further when batting right-handed against southpaws. Teams will key in on that and try to get him in a suboptimal position late in games by subbing in a lefty to face him.

This could be a mental challenge for Raleigh, trying to “hit his way out of it.” That can get dangerous. That’s when players start swinging at everything, trying to bust out of their slump. With his good bat speed and swing angle, it seems like there’s something about his approach, be it physically or mentally.

The Mariners will need the best version of Cal Raleigh if they are to finally get above .500 and have a fun, successful summer. It seems like just one swing, one at bat, could change everything. But for now, his confidence appears to be wavering, contributing significantly to the team’s overall offensive struggles.