Cal Raleigh to the Rescue? Mariners Not Dead Yet as September Approaches

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Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images [/caption]

This certainly has not been the season the Seattle Mariners, nor their fans, had envisioned. As August draws to a close, the Mariners are six games below .500, eight games worse where they were this time last season. Several fingers can be pointed in several directions to find blame for this sluggish season that has failed to live up to expectations.

Certainly, a finger can be pointed squarely at last year’s AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh. He even admitted it himself, when he told Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish, “I’m awful” earlier this month. After setting the world on fire last year with 60 homers and a .948 OPS, he is currently on pace for just 22 home runs and a lowly .625 OPS. His batting average is down roughly 80 points. It’s been a dark year for Big Dumper.

And yet, hope remains. Thanks to the mediocre nature of the rest of the American League around the Mariners, they are only two and a half games out of the AL West and four games back of an AL Wild Card spot. And now, Raleigh is showing signs of his former self just in time.

Earlier this week against the Phillies, Raleigh homered in four straight at bats, including three in one game on Monday. One of the most encouraging signs is that one of his home runs came against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Zack Wheeler, at the seventh-highest exit velocity of his entire season.

Looking at his numbers over the last two weeks, certainly they are buoyed by that four-plate appearance stretch. However, even before his break out party against the Phillies, his numbers were trending in the right direction. In the eight games leading up to the Phillies series, he posted an above-average 130 wRC+ and .780 OPS.

This is certainly the Cal Raleigh the Mariners have waited for all season. The biggest question is: will it last?

His xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average, an advanced baseball statistic that measures a hitter's true quality of contact rather than the actual random result of a play) has spiked the last week or so.

So, what happened? Some people are looking for some unconventional ways to explain it.

Stats in games after PCA slapped the Big Dumper

PCA: 0-8
Cal Raleigh: 4-5, 4 HRs

PCA sacrificed himself to save the Big Dumper pic.twitter.com/89ayN4lEoa— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) August 26, 2026

The underlying numbers, including a still-subpar exit velocity, elevated chase, and under-the-ball rates, have not fully flipped for Raleigh. A mechanical tweak and renewed confidence can produce a hot week but doesn’t guarantee sustainability. Timing matters in baseball.

That’s true for a team’s schedule as well. The Mariners stand to benefit from one of the easiest remaining dockets in baseball. If Raleigh can stay even moderately hot for the final month and the slugger looks anything close to resembling the player he was last year, Seattle has a realistic path to sneak into October and be a dangerous playoff team. If the slump returns, however, the offense remains too thin around him to make up the ground.