Analysis: 7 Burning Questions to Determine if Seahawks Will Win or Lose Super Bowl LX
SANTA CLARA, Calif. - After nearly two weeks of relentless coverage and chatter that has left fans on both sides experiencing a bad case of cabin fever, the Seattle Seahawks will finally hit the field with a chance to avenge a previous Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots as the two teams meet at Levis Stadium in Sunday’s big game.
Led by second-year coach Mike Macdonald and the resurgent Sam Darnold under center, the Seahawks will be making their first Super Bowl appearance since the aforementioned defeat to the Patriots in Arizona 11 years ago and fourth overall since the turn of the century. As for New England, now under the direction of coach Mike Vrabel - who won three Lombardi Trophies as a linebacker for the franchise - and led by a dynamic young quarterback in Drake Maye, will be playing in their first title game since Tom Brady departed prior to the 2020 season and their record 10th since 2001.
With both teams boasting top-three scoring offenses and physical, well-coached defenses, Sunday has all of the ingredients for a back-and-forth brawl on the biggest stage in professional sports. To earn their second Lombardi, the Seahawks will have to find answers to the following seven burning questions:
1. Can the Seahawks get back on track on the ground, figure out a Patriots’ stifling run defense?
Coming into the NFC Championship Game, Seattle’s once-maligned rushing attack had transformed into a juggernaut, as the team averaged over 170 rushing yards per game from Week 16 through the Divisional Round behind a two-headed attack featuring Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Walker capped off that run of four straight victories by tying a team record with three rushing touchdowns in a 41-6 blowout win over San Francisco to kick off the playoffs after a bye week, but Charbonnet suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the first half of the win, a loss that the team absolutely felt the following week.
Though Walker had several impressive runs in the first half against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, including a two-yard touchdown run, Chris Shula’s defense bottled him up for the most part after he found some success in the first quarter. Without Charbonnet’s punishing between the tackles style to complement him, the speedy back fell well short of four yards per carry, struggling to find much running room after the opening 15 minutes. The Seahawks ended the game with just 79 rushing yards and a dismal 2.9 yards per carry, their fourth-lowest output in a game all season.
Considering how well Seattle performed running the football over the previous month and change, after a two-week break, it would seem like an ideal situation to rebound. However, that will be much easier said than done against a New England defense that has been suffocating opposing run games throughout the postseason. In three playoff victories, the Patriots have limited opponents to a mere 71 rushing yards per game, including putting the Texans in a chokehold in the Divisional Round with just 48 rushing yards and 2.2 yards per carry.
In order for the Seahawks to be able to get their potent play action game going against a defense that has been quite good defending play passes all season, it will be imperative to find some traction in the rushing department with Walker and George Holani early. Much of that will boil down to the offensive line creating push, but the onus will also fall on receivers and tight ends to do their jobs as blockers on the outside and at the second level against a defense with corners and safeties that like to be involved defending the run as tacklers.
2. Who will get the upper hand in a much-anticipated head-to-head between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Christian Gonzalez?
As expected in the final matchup between the NFL’s top two teams, there will be no shortage of enticing one-on-one matchups to watch unfold on Sunday. But none of those pairings carry the weight or the hype of Smith-Njigba, who captured Offensive Player of the Year honors earlier this week after racking up a league-best 1,793 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, going up against Gonzalez, one of the top young defensive backs in the sport.
What makes this duel on the outside so compelling? It isn’t just two rising stars under the age of 25. There’s a true something has to give element to this impending battle on Sunday night, as Smith-Njigba has been a one-man wrecking crew demolishing man coverage all season long and Gonzalez has been arguably the best man cover corner in the league. The receiver cooked opponents 28 catches for 449 yards and five touchdowns against man and Sam Darnold posted a 146.1 passer rating when targeting his stud receiver in those situations. Meanwhile, Gonzalez allowed a 37% completion rate on 42 targets in man schemes with four pass breakups, an interception, and a 46.8 passer rating against.
On one hand, nobody has really been able to contain Smith-Nijgba in man assignments this season, and attempting to put anyone on him in that capacity could be seen as playing with fire. But if there’s a defender who can take the heat and has both the size and athleticism to match the All-Pro wideout, Gonzalez has held his own against several other elite receivers this season, and the Patriots won’t be shy sticking with his greatest strength. Whichever player wins the most snaps in this matchup could hold the key to who hoists the Lombardi.
3. Can Grey Zabel and Seattle’s youthful interior offensive line handle New England’s dominant defensive tackles?
An important part of arguably the most improved offensive line in the league, the trio of Grey Zabel, Jalen Sundell, and Anthony Bradford have played their best football collectively down the stretch. Zabel has been an anchor for the run game and dished out several big blocks downfield on screens during a nine-game winning streak, Sundell didn’t give up any sacks in the regular season and has seen exponential improvements in his run blocking, and Bradford quietly had the best year of his career giving up just one sack in that span while dishing out pancakes in the run game.
But looking at Seattle’s most recent opponents, while the Rams presented some problems with Kobie Turner, Poona Ford, and Braden Fiske, Zabel, Sundell, and Bradford haven’t had to deal with many elite defensive linemen in the midst of the ongoing win streak. That will change on Sunday with potentially the biggest test they have dealt with all season, as the Patriots have two outstanding defensive tackles in Milton Williams and Christian Barmore who complement one another with contrasting skill sets and tool boxes and can be equally disruptive rushing the passer and blowing up the run.
Injuries cost Williams five games in the regular season and he only produced 3.5 sacks, but he has stepped up big time in the playoffs, nearly equaling that total with two sacks and four quarterback hits in three postseason contests. One of the quickest interior defenders in the NFL, his speed and burst could be especially problematic against Bradford, whose biggest issues in pass protection have often revolved around getting beat by more athletic defenders. The 315-pound Barmore offers more power to dominate as a bull rusher, which could work to his advantage against the lighter Zabel and Sundell pushing the pocket and mucking up the line of scrimmage against the run.
It’s not exercising in hyperbole to believe that how Seattle’s interior linemen perform could be the biggest deciding factor for whether or not the team wins on Sunday. If the young trio gets overwhelmed by Williams and Barmore, those two defenders have the capabilities to destroy drives and make Darnold’s evening a night in hell. But if they can hold up physically and limit penetration, the entire playbook could be opened up for Klint Kubiak to attack weak spots on the back end, including via play action.
4. How will the Seahawks try to capitalize on the recent struggles of rookie tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson on the left side?
With the brightest of lights shining on the grass at Levis, the Seahawks won’t be the only team facing possible problems due to youth and inexperience on the offensive line. In fact, based on playoff performance up to this point, it would be hard to argue against the Patriots having a far more concerning situation while trying to game plan around a vicious defensive line headlined by Leonard Williams and Demarcus Lawrence.
While Zabel and Sundell have had their struggles at times during their first seasons as NFL starters, the two blockers have been rock solid in the playoffs as the Seahawks’ offense scored north of 35 points per game in wins over the 49ers and Rams. The same cannot be said for Campbell or Wilson, however, as they have been turnstiles on the left side in front of Maye in all three playoff games, surrendering a combined five sacks and 20 pressures with each failing to hit even a 95% Pass Block Efficiency Rate, leaving the quarterback hanging out to dry or running for his life far too often.
In defense of New England’s rookie tandem, Campbell and Wilson have faced stiff competition in all three games, dealing with Khalil Mack, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, and Zach Allen and Nik Bonnito in successive weeks. But the Seahawks have their own weaponry on the defensive line, starting with Williams and Lawrence feeding off each other with the ability to dominate both with speed and power. Behind them, Byron Murphy II had seven sacks in the regular season, while Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe, and Derick Hall all have the talent to go off any given Sunday, creating a major advantage for Macdonald’s defense in the trenches.
5. What does Macdonald have up his sleeve to defend Maye’s improvisation and scrambling talents?
In two seasons at the helm as the head coach and defensive play caller, Macdonald has been masterful against young quarterbacks, as the Seahawks went 6-0 this season against signal callers with three or fewer seasons under their belt. He also has not had too many issues orchestrating successful game plans against dual-threat quarterbacks, shutting down Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels earlier in the season as just two examples.
But containing Maye will be a different animal all together, and there is precedent earlier in the season for Seattle struggling against a strong, athletic quarterback who can run and sling the pigskin, as Tennessee’s Cam Ward had a stellar performance in Nashville in Week 12 rallying the Titans back in the fourth quarter. Scrambling off of pass plays 70 times combined in the regular season and playoffs, easily the most in the NFL, the second-year quarterback can be a real thorn in the side for opposing defenses with his ability to extend plays and create explosives as a passer downfield or as a runner.
As is always the case against quarterbacks who excel at running the football, the Seahawks can’t afford to slip up in regard to pass rush lane integrity, as they will need to balance being aggressive trying to hunt Maye in the pocket with also being disciplined and not creating openings for him to escape out of. A big component of that will be not getting too far upfield off the edge, ensuring that he can’t tuck and run to either climb up the pocket or work his way outside to buy extra time for his receivers to create separation. Letting that happen a few too many times could ignite an offense that hasn’t been near as explosive in the playoffs as regular season, a recipe for allowing the underdog to hang tough and potentially pull off an upset.
Away from pass rush lanes, Macdonald likely will have some tactics up his sleeve for keeping a pair of eyes glued to Maye at all times in a quarterback spy assignment. Both starting linebackers Ernest Jones and Drake Thomas have the wheels and instincts to handle that role chasing down the electric runner. The wild card for such deployment may be safety Nick Emmanwori, however, as the speedy defender already lines up frequently near the box and can chase down anyone sideline to sideline.
6. Will Seattle’s secondary bring A game, impose will on underrated New England receiving corps?
With the exception of three games, the Seahawks have been as unforgiving as any defense in regard to yielding explosive plays in the passing game, including shutting down Brock Purdy and San Francisco in consecutive games in Week 18 and the Divisional Round. But that doesn’t mean they haven’t been vulnerable, as the Rams lit them up for over 350 passing yards in both Week 16 and the NFC Championship Game, dominating with Puka Nucua and Davante Adams creating chunk plays against the likes of Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen and regularly slipping behind coverage for Matthew Stafford to orchestrate an aerial assault.
If there’s good news for Seattle, New England does not have Nacua or Adams. That’s not a slight to Stefon Diggs either, as the veteran did manage to slip past the 1,000-yard mark and still had a fine season by all accounts. But at this stage of his career, he’s no longer a burner and his game now is more predicated on winning in the intermediate passing game as a high volume target. While still a quality No. 1 receiver, he’s certainly not a First-Team All-Pro caliber player as he once was.
With that said, the Patriots have a cast of receivers that continue to be criminally underrated. Spearheading the No. 2 scoring offense in the league, Maye didn’t just throw 31 touchdown passes and average a league-best 8.9 yards per attempt by accident. Kayshon Boutte may have had only 33 catches, but 17 of them qualified as explosives for a ridiculous 51% explosive reception rate. Mack Hollins eclipsed a 30% explosive play rate and Demario Douglas averaged a healthy 14.4 yards per reception as well, while tight end Hunter Henry surpassed 700 receiving yards and scored seven touchdowns.
In other words, even if the Patriots don’t have the household names or surefire elite wideout, Maye has an underrated arsenal at his disposal that generated a league-high 101 explosive receptions as a team in the regular season. Keeping the likes of Diggs, Boutte, Douglas, and Hollins in front of them will be crucial for Witherspoon, Woolen, and Josh Jobe in the Seahawks’ secondary, while Emmanwori likely will be the one tasked with trying to cover Henry, presenting one of the tougher draws he has had during his rookie season as a whole. Giving up a bunch of deep balls would be a surefire way to lose as the favorite.
7. Which team will ignite the first - or most - fireworks on special teams?
The teams that manage to survive and advance this far into the playoffs tend to be strong on special teams. Based on Expected Points Added (EPA), the Seahawks performed at a much higher level than the Patriots this season, finishing third overall (55.88) compared to New England finishing 18th (-7.50), which would suggest Macdonald’s squad has a significant edge in the third phase of the game.
But while New England may not be as well-rounded on special teams as Seattle, cornerback Marcus Jones emerged as one of the most dangerous return specialists in the NFL this season and provides a rare talent who can match the theatrics of Rashid Shaheed. Aside from taking two interceptions back to the house for touchdowns on defense, he returned two punts for touchdowns for the Patriots, earning Second-Team All-Pro honors ahead of Shaheed, who had a kick and punt return for six points in the regular season before adding a kickoff returned for a score to open the Divisional Round.
It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if both Macdonald and Vrabel decide to play keep away, ordering their respective kickers to boot the ball out of the end zone every kickoff and avoid Jones and Shaheed like the plague on punts by sending the ball out of bounds rather than risk giving up a game-changing return. But at the same time, neither coach has been known for being conservative or playing scared, and if either player gets a chance to catch a kick or punt and find a seam, they could join a long list of special teams standouts who made Super Bowl altering plays that ultimately dictated the final outcome.
