Big Ten Picks: Huskies Take Shot at Sinking Ducks’ CFP Plans

SEATTLE, Wash. — Motivation is a tricky subject when it comes to college football players.

Washington’s dream of College Football Playoff consideration was crushed on a snowy night in Madison, Wisconsin when the Huskies suffered their third loss of the season, 13-10 to the Badgers. UW responded, though, by bashing its next two opponents by a combined score of 97-27, to avoid head-hanging after a brutal loss.

The Ducks, worked over 30-20 at home by Indiana on Oct. 11, followed the setback with five straight wins.

The motivation for both teams is clear when No. 6 Oregon (10-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten) visits Washington (8-3, 5-3) for a 12:30 p.m. kickoff on Saturday. The Ducks must win to assure themselves of a CFP berth, and head coach Dan Lanning needs to show he doesn’t have a UW problem. Lanning is 1-3 against Washington. Though he broke through in big-time fashion last year with a 49-21 win at Autzen Stadium in Jedd Fisch’s first season, a loss would bring back a full offseason of questions.

The Ducks may still reach the CFP with a loss, but would fall into a mix with other strong programs that the unpredictable CFP committee will sort through on Dec. 7.

“This game means a lot,” Lanning said on Monday. “It’s probably the No. 1 question I get asked when I’m out on the road with donors and support groups, and talking about our university, is about this game. It’s one that I struggled with early on when I was here. To start, they had some success against us. So it means a lot to me.”

Lanning lost three games to former UW coach Kalen DeBoer in 2022 and 2023, including the last (traditionally constructed) Pac-12 Championship game. Much like arguments about which program is better, “early on” can mean different things to different people.

Though players from both sides acknowledged a dislike for the other, no bold predications came out of Seattle or Eugene last week.

“It’s a fight between two teams that don’t like each other,” Huskies edge rush Zach Durfee said on Tuesday. “It’s something I’m super excited for.”

Which Program is Better?

To answer that question, it depends on which slice of history you’re discussing. Though UW could change the narrative on Saturday, the Ducks clearly appear to be the better team over the past two seasons. An Oregon win at Husky Stadium would cement that, as it would be two straight wins and consecutive CFP berths.

If it’s total history, dating back to the first game between the two schools in 1900, Washington owns that with a record of 63-49-5.

If you’re a fan of the Ducks, a nice cutoff point for going back in time is 2004. That’s when Oregon dominated with 12 straight wins by an average score of 42-18. Since 2004, Oregon leads the series 16-5. A Huskies fan might follow that point by going back nine years. UW is 5-4 against Oregon since Jake Browning’s “The Point” game, a 70-21 win in 2016.

As for the future, a lot of it will be determined by which school can retain/hire great coaches and navigate the NIL world.

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore’s name has been bandied about at times in discussions of Heisman Trophies and the NFL’s No. 1 overall pick. He’s looked the part in most games this season, but appeared human in a 30-20 home loss to No. 2 (then No. 7) Indiana, and low-scoring wins over Wisconsin (21-7) and Iowa (18-16). Moore is aided by an offensive line that tops the Pro Football Focus pass blocking rankings with a score of 91.8.

For the Huskies to have any chance at this team, they’ll need a few things to come through:

• The offensive line, which dominates weaker foes and gets pushed around from time to time by top defensive lines, must hold its own against a solid Oregon front. UW must open enough holes for running backs Jonah Coleman — who may be limited by a knee brace — Adam Mohammed and Jordan Washington. And, with some players in new spots and some inexperienced starters, the line has to avoid major lapses that land quarterback Demond Williams Jr. on his back.
• Williams has to have the game of his life. Avoiding turnovers is the obvious key, but if Oregon gives him the opportunity to take a shot down the field, he’s got to hit it. It’s not yet known how healthy No. 1 receiver Denzel Boston will be, so it may be up to others, such as Omari Evans and Audric Harris, to do some damage downfield. Williams has 121 carries this season, though many of those have come from scrambles and 23 sacks. With it being the final game of the regular season, this may be the game for more designed runs. A first 20-carry game of the season could be in order Saturday.
• The defense needs to do what it’s done all year, and give the team a chance to win by limiting chunk plays. The Huskies have not allowed more than 25 points in a game this season, and it seems unlikely that the offense can overcome anything above that number. Washington forced and recovered three fumbles against UCLA after recovering just two total in its first 10 games, and the Huskies have recorded six interceptions this year. This would be a good game to keep recovering fumbles and pick off a pass or two.
• Washington punter Luke Dunne punted reasonably well in the past two games (four punts, 42-yard average), and must avoid the shanks that have shown up in some earlier games.
• A loud Husky Stadium, turnover margin, and a little luck are also on the agenda for a UW win.

Injury updates

It sounds like Coleman and Boston will both play, but how healthy either will be remains in question. Coleman wore a large knee brace in limited work last week. Boston saw the field a couple of times as well, but was not targeted. Receiver Raiden Vines-Bright is expected to return.

Fisch said right tackle Drew Azzopardi may be back after missing two games, plus the second half at Wisconsin. Whether that’s as a starter or to help with depth remains unknown. Freshman John Mills has played well in two starts at right tackle after moving over from left guard. If Azzopardi slots back in the lineup, Mills would likely go back to left guard, with Paki Finau backing up multiple spots. Center Landen Hatchett will still have a cast on his snapping hand, meaning Zachary Henning is likely to get the start.

On defense, cornerback Tacario Davis is expected to return, and edge Isaiah Ward will get back on the field situationally as well. Linebacker Jacob Manu is healthy, but expected to sit out in order to preserve his redshirt status and retain eligibility for next season.

Big Ten Picks

Iowa 40, Nebraska 16

Due to my appointment to have gravy injections, I did not pick this one before game time. Not surprised, though, to see Matt Rhule fall to 0-3 vs. Iowa while at Nebraska. He’s also 0-8 versus ranked teams. Sweet contract through 2032, though.

No. 2 Indiana (11-0 overall, 8-0 Big Ten) -28.5 at Purdue (2-9, 0-8)
4:30 p.m. Friday, NBC/Peacock

Could Purdue, playing at home off a bye, pull off the shocker of all shockers? Absolutely not.
Indiana 45-3

No. 1 at Ohio State (11-0, 8-0) -9.5 at No. 15 Michigan (9-2, 7-1)
12:30 p.m., CBS

I don’t think Michigan is as good as its record indicates. And if it’s possible, Ohio State is better than its undefeated record indicates. The Buckeyes will emphatically end the Wolverines’ four-game series winning streak.
Ohio State 27-10

Wisconsin (4-7, 2-6) -2.5 at Minnesota (6-5, 4-4)
12:30 p.m., FS1

Things look a little different for the Badgers than they did before the Huskies visited on Nov. 8, and they are road favorites vs. a bowl team. Wild. The Golden Gophers, though, have lost three of four, with the lone win coming at home against Jonathan Smith’s hapless Michigan State team. If Wisconsin can complete double-digit passes for the second week in a row, that’ll be enough to get it done behind an emerging defense.
Wisconsin 19-16

Penn State (5-6) -14.5 at Rutgers (5-6, 2-6)
12:30 p.m., BTN

This is essentially a bowl game play-in contest. I’m not sure Penn State would have been two-touchdown favorites over Central Washington University a month ago, but the Nittany Lions have looked like a functional football team for the past three weeks.
Penn State 34-19

Maryland (4-7, 1-7) at Michigan State (3-8, 0-8) -4.5
4 p.m., FS1

Yuck. Not all games should be on TV. These teams are a combined 0-15 since Sept. 20. Let’s throw former UW offensive coordinator Jonathan Smith a bone on his way out the door.
Michigan State 12-7

UCLA (3-8, 3-5) -21.5 at USC (8-3, 6-2)
4:30 p.m., NBC

The Bruins hit the road to LA Memorial Stadium, which is closer to campus (16 miles) than their home at the Rose Bowl (25 miles). Strange things happen in this rivalry, but it sure seems like the Huskies drove the final stake in UCLA’s heart last week.
USC 48-25

Northwestern (6-5, 4-4) at Illinois (7-4, 4-4) -7.5
4:30 p.m., FOX

Northwestern has shown some fight all season, and has a chance to jump ahead of Illinois — a preseason CFP playoff pick by some — in the Big Ten standings. In the past five weeks, Ohio State, Washington and Wisconsin outclassed the Illini, who have wins over bad Rutgers and Maryland teams during that span. I’m going with the scrappy Wildcats.
Northwestern 22-21

The Pick

In the boxing world, a good heavyweight fighter knocks out average boxers, but gets floored against true contenders. That, folks, is Washington in 2025. Much of that comes from an offensive line that struggled against the defensive fronts of Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin. UW’s defense does enough to keep the Huskies in it, but the offense won’t move the ball consistently enough against a solid Oregon defense.

Oregon 25, UW 15

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Records

Last week: 7-1 straight up, 3-5 against the spread
Season: 103-20, 75-58 ATS
Huskies picks (weekly): 8-3, 7-4 ATS
Huskies picks (from preseason): 10-1, 7-4 ATS