Big Ten Picks: Can the Huskies Help Conference Overtake SEC in College Football Playoff Field?

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Demond Williams Jr. will be a key to the Washington Huskies’ hopes of making it to coach Jedd Fisch’s first College Football Playoff in 2026. Credit: Scott Eklund / Red Box Pictures / Washington Athletics [/caption]

What’s the difference between nine and 10 wins?

The simple answer is “one.”

If you’re talking about regular-season wins for a Big Ten team, however, the real answer is:

Everything. 

Ten, and you’re almost certainly in the College Football Playoff. Nine means you’re out. 

Ten puts a team in the heavyweight division. It’s one extra mile per hour for an airplane to break the sound barrier. It’s not the summit of Mount Everest, but it's The Balcony, a stop way up there that means you’re getting close to reaching the world’s highest mountaintop. 

Can the Huskies ascend to The Balcony of the college football world this season, or will they stumble at the base camp? 

I’ve been on the fence during all of fall camp. Nine is the easy answer, and perhaps the smart one. After all, oddsmakers place UW at essentially eight wins. Washington, ranked 17th in the preseason AP Poll, can’t have a 2026 version of last season’s loss at Wisconsin, 

This season, the Huskies face five currently ranked teams, and beating three of them seems a requirement for the CFP climb. Six games appear losable, though dropping all six would be a massive tumble in head coach Jedd Fisch’s third season:

• At No. 14 USC, Oct. 3
• No. 22 Iowa, Oct. 9 (Friday)
• At Nebraska, Oct. 31
• No. 18 Penn State, Nov. 7
• No. 6 Indiana, Nov. 21
• No. 2 Oregon, Nov. 28

Assuming the Huskies can sweep the other six (WSU, Utah State, Eastern, at Purdue, at Michigan State), going 4-2 in the losable six is a tall, but realistic task. 

The last two — home against the defending national champions and on the road against the current No. 2-ranked team — appear to be the most difficult. If Washington starts 10-0 and drops those two by lopsided margins, the CFP committee could get antsy and start looking at 10-win ACC or Big 12 teams. I’ll make game-by-game predictions next week, but the most likely path to the CFP for Washington is a 9-1 start followed by a split against Indiana and Oregon. 

As of this moment, I’m in on 10 wins and Fisch’s first CFP berth. If I see Demond Williams Jr. limp for even one step this weekend, or one key player goes down with an injury, though, I’ll be quick to drop to nine. Some of these games could be that close. 

Big Ten Standings

With a gauntlet that includes road tilts at No. 5 Texas, No. 22 Iowa, No. 6 Indiana, No. 14 USC, the Buckeyes could lose two or three games and win the national title. Oregon visits on Nov. 7, which could determine who wins the regular-season conference title. 

Aside from the home matchup with Ohio State, Indiana faces three teams ranked in the teens on the road span late in the season with trips to Michigan, USC and Washington. 

Some believe USC will get to the CFP this season, which is a likely requirement for Riley to keep his job. (Don’t worry, folks, he’ll be OK once he receives his buyout, rumored to be at least $60 million). Watch out for Penn State, which 18th-ranked strength of schedule out of 18 Big Ten teams. The Nittany Lions avoid Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon this season. 

Last year, five SEC teams reached the playoff, compared to just three for the Big Ten. Flip that result in 2026, with five Big Ten teams reaching the 10-win mark that seems to be a requirement for the CFP committee to invite a team to the party. 

I’ll put Ohio State in the No. 1 spot because of an expected head-to-head home win over Oregon. Otherwise, I’m not diving into a very complex tie-breaker system to figure out who officially finished 10th, 11th and 12th in the conference. 

1. Ohio State 10-2, 8-1
2. Oregon 11-1, 8-1
t3. Washington 10-2, 7-2
t3. Indiana 10-2, 7-2
t3. Penn State 10-2, 7-2
6. Michigan 8-4, 6-3
t7. USC 8-4, 5-4
t7. Illinois 8-4, 5-4
t7. Iowa 8-4, 5-4
t10. Wisconsin 6-6, 4-5
t10. UCLA 6-6, 4-5
t10. Minnesota 6-6, 4-5
t13. Nebraska 6-6, 3-6
t13. Northwestern 6-6, 3-6
15. Rutgers 5-7, 2-7
t16. Maryland 3-9, 1-8
t16. Michigan State 3-9, 1-8
t16. Purdue 2-10, 1-8

Big Ten Picks

I’d love to tell you to bet everything you own on my Big Ten picks after I had a winning record last year. These things tend to even out over time, however, so I suggest keeping your money and arguing with me in the comments. 

Just one game this week. And while we’re here: What massive miss by FBS teams this weekend. With almost no NFL players participating in games this weekend — or shall I say none that will still be on NFL teams next week — college football could own “Week 0.” There should be big-time games Thursday-Sunday. Instead, the best games are North Carolina-TCU (in Dublin), Memphis-UNLV, NC State-Virginia and New Mexico State-Florida. 

Yawn. 

And here’s the double-yawn game featuring a Big Ten team:

San Jose State (0-0) +39 at No. 14 USC (0-0)
Noon, Saturday, NBC

This could have been a trouble spot for USC a couple of years ago, but San Jose State is coming off a 3-9 season and looks to be about the same this year. Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, looking for some extra job security, will keep the pedal to the floor on this one and wait until later to blow it. 

I’ll call it USC 56, San Jose State 10.