Analyzing Seattle Mariners’ Free Agent Situation as Baseball Offseason Begins in Earnest
MLB free agency officially begins on Nov. 6, 2025, and as with all teams in the sport, the M’s have several players testing the waters of free agency before the 2026 season. Some aren’t likely to return; at least one other is a core part of the lineup whose return is utterly necessary for the team’s success. There will be a whole lot more free agents out on the market around the league, but the decisions the M’s make about their in-house options will offer some insight into the team’s strategy for 2026.
1B Josh Naylor, around $15.1 million estimated average annual value (AAV).
2025 statistics: .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 29 2B, 92 RBIs, 30 SB, .816 OPS, 128 OPS+, 128 wRC+, 3.1 bWAR, 3.1 fWAR.
There’s little to be said about Naylor that hasn’t already been said before in Seattle media, and that includes the praises sung by yours truly. His arrival a week before the trade deadline plugged what had been a gaping hole in the Mariners’ roster. His aggressive batting style differed from much of the Mariners’ take-heavy lineup and forced pitchers out of their groove with him at the plate. And perhaps most importantly in October, Naylor was one of the most effective base-stealers in the game. 19 of his 30 regular season swipes came with the Mariners, and an electric steal of third in Game 5 of the ALDS produced one of the team’s two runs in regulation and allowed the team to go to their extra-inning ALCS-clinching marathon.
Perhaps most impressively, Naylor likes hitting in Seattle. Multiple times he has said that he sees the ball better in T-Mobile Park, a unique and well-received departure from the many former Mariners who have complained about the hitting environment south of downtown. Indeed, Naylor had a 1.015 OPS at T-Mobile in 2025, enough for a 200 OPS+ (essentially, twice as good as an average hitter) when accounting for park factors.
Verdict: the Seattle Mariners must re-sign Josh Naylor.
The results speak for themselves. Will he replicate them? His high chase rates do suggest risks in his aging curve, but not only is Naylor only going to be 29 in 2026, a nagging shoulder issue in 2025 actually reduced his bat speed by a fair amount—yet seemingly didn’t affect his production. The mid-career development of an elite base-stealing ability despite his slow absolute speed is a display of intelligence and ability to adjust, another thing that portends a good 2026 season. Re-signing Naylor early on in the offseason would also signal to the rest of the league’s free agents that Seattle’s front office means business coming off the deepest playoff run in team history.
3B Eugenio Suárez, around $15 million estimated AAV.
2025 statistics: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 28 2B, 118 RBIs, .824 OPS, 126 OPS+, 125 wRC+, 3.6 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR.
Eugenio Suárez was the biggest bat available in the 2025 trade deadline, with an absolutely barn-burning statline during the first four months of the season. He had slashed .248/.320/.576 with 36 home runs and 87 RBIs and was on pace to blow past his best single-season WAR and OPS+ numbers from years earlier. There were signs his production might not translate to a new team, given his general streakiness and 1.008 OPS at home compared to a (still strong) .783 OPS away from the friendly confines of Chase Field, but the positional need, his earlier two-year stint with the Mariners, and the good vibes he could bring to the clubhouse made Jerry Dipoto and company pull the trigger.
Despite a decline in production once he made the hop over to the Emerald City, the acquisition proved well worth it. Even during his cold streaks with the lumber, he maintained a clean glove, a strong arm, and kept the clubhouse humming along as the team began its near-magical month-plus run. In Game 5 of the ALDS, Suárez delivered a bullet to home in the top of the 12th that kept the game tied and the Mariners’ season alive, but his eighth-inning go-ahead grand slam in Game 5 of the ALCS proved to be his finest hour. But should the Mariners get Suárez back for the 2026 season?
Verdict: Re-signing Eugenio Suárez is a defensible decision; not doing so is also defensible, but only if the Mariners have a clear infield game plan without him.
The big question with Suárez is his age. He will turn 35 in the 2026 season, and his power-heavy all-or-nothing profile is not exactly one that typically ages gracefully. His bat speed has remained roughly steady in the past three years, but his chase rates and walk rates have steadily gotten worse over that timespan. In essence, the Mariners would be taking a risk either way with Suárez. If they don’t re-sign him, they would be betting that Ben Williamson (or Cole Young, if the M’s re-sign Polanco and move him over to third to make space for Young at second) makes a big leap with the bat, and if they do re-sign him, they would be betting that Suárez keeps up the production in his age 35 season.
If Seattle re-signs Polanco or obtains a high quality third baseman from elsewhere during the winter (or both), then they can afford to do without Suárez. But relying on unproven sophomores at both second and third in 2026 would be too much of a risk to take when the American League is filled with rising teams for next year and the status of baseball itself in 2027 is still unknown.
2B Jorge Polanco, around $14.6 estimated AAV.
2025 statistics: .265/.326/.495, 26 HR, 30 2B, 78 RBIs, .821 OPS, 134 OPS+, 132 wRC+, 2.6 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR.
Coming off an injury-riddled mess of a 2024 season, Seattle trusted that a recovered Polanco would return to form for the 2025 season and was rewarded brilliantly for it. Polanco had some inconsistencies during the year, with excellent April and September campaigns but a big rut throughout May and June, but his overall production down the stretch and in the playoffs was the difference between a petered-out early exit and the team reaching Game 7 of the ALCS.
Age is something of a concern for Polanco, who will turn 33 next year, but his exact fit in the lineup would be the more immediate concern. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander mentioned in the end-of-season interviews that the organization views the upcoming crop of prospects as “everyday players,” and that likely means that at least one of Ben Williamson or Cole Young will be getting significant playing time in the 2026 season—especially Cole Young. Polanco, while a serviceable defender at second, doesn’t have the arm strength for regular third base play, and so would probably be a designated hitter if he returns to the M’s. Polanco, however, has historically struggled when DHing compared to playing in the field, an extra wrinkle that the team might have to contend with.
Verdict: Seattle should re-sign Jorge Polanco, unless they obtain someone better this winter.
Still, the M’s should get him back on the team, at least for another year. He offers a veteran presence in the lineup and has a good approach at the plate, able to foul off pitches and make good contact when opposing pitchers make a mistake. His .740 OPS with two strikes was third best among qualified hitters, far beyond the league’s .512 OPS with two strikes, and Polanco was one of just six hitters whose two-strike OPS was better than the league’s .719 OPS in all counts. Seattle could feasibly move on from Polanco, but that would only be a viable option if they went out and got an even better (and much more expensive) infielder.
C Mitch Garver, around $3.5 million estimated AAV.
2025 statistics: .209/.297/.343, 9 HR, 5 2B, 30 RBIs, .639 OPS, 86 OPS+, 86 wRC+, -0.1 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR.
Signed to Seattle after a strong season with the 2023 Texas Rangers, Mitch Garver declined in his two years in the Emerald City, and his secondary job as backup catcher became his primary occupation while designated hitter duties went elsewhere against right-handed arms. As I’ve said before, Garver was something of an underrated role player for Seattle in 2025, but it wasn’t worth exercising a $12 million mutual option for a platoon DH and backup catcher, and so the M’s took a $1 million buyout of Garver’s contract.
Verdict: Seattle shouldn’t re-sign Mitch Garver unless they can do so very cheaply, and even then, he likely wouldn’t have a clear role.
With Harry Ford likely slotting into the backup catcher role for 2026—and the fact that any returning Polanco would likely be a designated hitter against pitchers from both sides of the hill—Garver would be an odd man out in the 2026 team, and his apparent low ceiling would constrict the M’s unless he fills out a spot in the back end of the major league roster or the team trades Ford.
RP Caleb Ferguson, around $3.4 million estimated AAV.
2025 statistics: 65 ⅓ innings pitched, 5-4 record, 3.58 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.163 WHIP, 0.9 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR.
After elite Twins closer Jhoan Duran slipped through Seattle’s grasp at the trade deadline, the M’s front office pivoted to Pirates lefty Caleb Ferguson to aid them in the southpaw department. Although he played decently over the rest of the regular season and had a pitching arsenal distinct to much of the rest of the Mariners bullpen, he struggled dearly towards the end of September and during the postseason.
Verdict: Bringing Caleb Ferguson back is a viable option, but the M’s can’t rely on him as a surefire relief improvement.
Ferguson did suffer from a bit of bad luck in the 2025 season, and with how notoriously fickle relievers can be, he’s one of many bounce-back bullpen candidates for 2026. His sinker had the lowest hard-hit rates of any such pitch in baseball over the season, while some of the numbers on his slurve and cutter also showed some promise. For the Mariners, however, their big need in the bullpen is another truly elite reliever who can be trusted to put up numbers year in, year out, and in October. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring Ferguson back for 2026, but that does mean that they can’t rely on him to bring their ‘pen from good to great.
