Absent Ace? How Bryan Woo’s Availability Affects M’s ALDS Starting Rotation Scenarios
As the ALDS between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers quickly approaches, it is rapidly becoming clear that the Mariners’ ace, Bryan Woo, will have limited at best availability. Had he been fully healthy coming into the postseason, the M’s would have four starters they could easily rotate without rest issues due to the extra rest days in postseason play, but after Woo’s minor pectoral injury in mid-September, Seattle now has to work around that—at least for the ALDS.
Throughout the week, Mariners management talked about needing to see a clearer picture before coming to a final decision about their ALCS rotation.
“We’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said before Woo’s scheduled bullpen on Thursday.
It all hinges on how soon Bryan Woo can get to game-ready form and start hurling heaters past some Tigers. The team is expecting to make their final decision on Friday, but before then, I’ll go over some probable scenarios for what the team might do given different outlooks on Woo’s recovery.
If Woo is available by Game 3:
This would be the best case scenario for the Mariners. Woo has the best road ERA (3.25) and road FIP (3.67) of anyone on the Mariners’ starting rotation this season, better than Luis Castillo (4.71 road ERA, 4.11 road FIP), Logan Gilbert (4.74 road ERA, 4.33 road FIP), George Kirby (5.16 road ERA, 3.64 road FIP), or Bryce Miller (5.56 road ERA, 4.94 road FIP). There’s a good chance—50 percent going by coin flips—that Game 3 is an elimination game for either team, and the M’s would like to have their ace on the mound.
While it does seem increasingly unlikely that the M’s will be able to start Woo in Game 3, this is what the rotation would probably look like if he does manage to get to game readiness by then:
Game 1 Starter: Logan Gilbert
Game 2 Starter: George Kirby
Game 3 Starter: Bryan Woo
Game 4 Starter (if necessary): Luis Castillo
Game 5 Starter (if necessary): Logan Gilbert
If Woo is available by Game 4:
Here we have the first of fairly likely possibilities. Woo, during an interview with the media on Thursday, said that he hoped to be back to full strength a week from then—i.e., Oct. 9. This neatly splits the difference between the scheduled date for Game 4 (Oct. 8) and Game 5 (Oct. 10), so on the optimistic end of that, there is a possibility that he is ready to go in Game 4. This would allow the M’s to keep the playoff rotation limited to just the top four guys without any need for outings on short rest and give a likely rotation resembling the following:
Game 1 Starter: Logan Gilbert
Game 2 Starter: George Kirby
Game 3 Starter: Luis Castillo
Game 4 Starter: Bryan Woo
Game 5 Starter: Logan Gilbert
If Woo is available by Game 5:
This is where things get more dicey. If Woo is not available by Game 4, there is no way to split the first four games of the series such that each one of Gilbert, Kirby, and Castillo is on at least four days of rest. The Mariners would be faced with a choice: start Bryce Miller—who never quite found his groove this season—in a Game 4 where they would be potentially facing elimination, or start somebody on three days of rest that day.
Option I: start Luis Castillo in Game 1 and have him pitch on three days of rest for Game 4.
It must be said that Luis Castillo has not started a game on three days’ rest at any point in his MLB career, neither during the regular season nor during the playoffs. However, there is a big reason that, if anyone is going to start on three days of rest, it should be Castillo: while Castillo’s career stats on five days of rest and on four days of rest are roughly identical, both Kirby and Gilbert fare much worse if they don’t have that fifth day of rest. While this doesn’t directly say anything about how they would fare on three days of rest, it does suggest that Castillo would be the one least affected by the quick turnaround. If this is what the M’s go with, their playoff rotation would look something like this:
Game 1 Starter: Luis Castillo
Game 2 Starter: Logan Gilbert
Game 3 Starter: George Kirby
Game 4 Starter (if necessary): Luis Castillo
Game 5 Starter (if necessary): Bryan Woo
Option II: Keep Gilbert in Game 1, have Miller or a bullpen day in Game 4.
It’s obviously a gamble to go with a pitcher with a 5.68 ERA for a do-or-die playoff game, but there are reasons to think Miller might not be the worst choice for a road Game 4. Miller’s biggest issue since coming back from injury has been the home run ball, with 2.59 home runs given up per nine innings in August and September. This has resulted in an ERA of 5.62 over that span and an even worse 5.99 late-season FIP alongside it. But Comerica Park is one of the most cavernous ball yards in the game, and with Julio Rodriguez and Victor Robles behind him in the outfield, some home runs in most stadiums could very well turn into outs in Detroit.
It wouldn’t be a stress-free choice, but when the other options are someone pitching on three days of rest or a bullpen day, Miller might be the best choice. A bullpen day, should it happen instead, could see some combination of Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans tackle the early to middle innings before Carlos Vargas takes over by the fifth or sixth. There’s no easy options here for Seattle, but if they want to avoid a starter tackling short rest, their rotation might look like this:
Game 1 Starter: Logan Gilbert
Game 2 Starter: George Kirby
Game 3 Starter: Luis Castillo
Game 4 Starter (if necessary): Bryce Miller/Bullpen Day
Game 5 Starter (if necessary): Bryan Woo
If Woo isn’t available for the ALDS at all:
This is a simple but disheartening option. There’s a very real chance that the recovery outlook doesn’t give any room for Woo to start at all in the ALDS, pushing him to Game 1 of the ALCS or beyond. The rest cycles for the rest of the staff give similar choices to the previous duo of scenarios where Woo is held back until Game 5, but unlike those, the M’s wouldn’t be able to utilize their ace in that winner-take-all game.
Option I: Start Castillo in Game 1, start him on three days of rest in Game 4, and start Gilbert on four days of rest in Game 5.
This is essentially identical to the similar option above, except with Logan Gilbert pitching Game 5 instead of Bryan Woo. Gilbert would be on four days of rest, a situation where he has a 4.44 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, and 1.54 home runs allowed per nine innings over his career, compared to a career 3.07 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, and 0.99 home runs allowed per nine innings when on five or more days of rest. For this reason, Dan Wilson and the Mariners could lean more towards the second option if Woo isn’t available for Game 5. If they go with two of the top three on short rest, however, it would look like this:
Game 1 Starter: Luis Castillo
Game 2 Starter: Logan Gilbert
Game 3 Starter: George Kirby
Game 4 Starter (if necessary): Luis Castillo
Game 5 Starter (if necessary): Logan Gilbert
Option II: Keep Gilbert in Game 1, have Miller or a bullpen day in Game 4.
As previously mentioned, there are signs that Bryce Miller might find Comerica Park a set of relatively friendly confines, considering his limitations this season. This scenario, as mentioned above, would be more likely if Bryan Woo is unable to make a Game 5 start, as it would give Gilbert full rest between bookending starts if the series gets to that final contest:
Game 1 Starter: Logan Gilbert
Game 2 Starter: George Kirby
Game 3 Starter: Luis Castillo
Game 4 Starter (if necessary): Bryce Miller/Bullpen Day
Game 5 Starter (if necessary): Logan Gilbert
Situational Adjustments
There’s one more wrench to throw into this stew—nobody knows how many games will be played. Seattle’s best case scenario is that they sweep Detroit, using each of their three best available starters once and getting another little bout of rest before taking on the Yankees or Blue Jays in the ALCS.
But once they start the first guy in the rotation, there is no going back. If Gilbert goes out for Game 1, the M’s are locked into having either Miller or a bullpen day on Game 4 should Woo be unavailable. Castillo going out for the opener would afford them a little more flexibility if Woo is still uncertain by Saturday, but it would also take one of Gilbert or Kirby out of the ballpark where they perform best.
No easy decisions exist in the playoffs, however—just ones that will be recalled for all time. The only thing that the M’s can do is make a plan, stick to the plan, and try to execute it as best as possible.
