2 Keys For Mariners’ Survival on Daunting Road Trip
After winning nine series in a row, the tables quickly turned on the Mariners. They were shellacked by a middling Blue Jays team, getting outscored 21-7 in a three-game sweep this past weekend, then lost two of three against the Yankees. Now they head out on a 10-games-in-10-days road trip to San Diego, Chicago, and finally Houston to face the division-rival Astros — all while missing a laundry list of key contributors due to injury.
In other words, the near future doesn’t look particularly favorable for Seattle. But let’s dive into two keys for the club’s survival before it returns home at the end of the month.
Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo have to continue to stabilize the rotation
With Bryce Miller (right elbow inflammation) joining Logan Gilbert (right elbow flexor strain) and George Kirby (right shoulder inflammation) on the injured list, the Mariners’ rotation behind Woo and Castillo now consists of Logan Evans, Emerson Hancock, and Jhonathan Díaz. Evans’ first three starts of his major-league career have been a mixed bag, Hancock has four quality starts sandwiched in between two blowup outings and still has some prominent command issues, and Díaz is a pitch-to-contact lefty with ordinary stuff who’s posted a 5.87 ERA and a 5.11 FIP in 30.2 innings pitched down in Tacoma this season.
This isn’t to say the Mariners can’t win any of the games the aforementioned trio take the bump in, but the likelihood of them doing so is obviously low given their limitations and the teams, specifically the Padres and Astros, at least two of the three are set to face. This puts an incredible amount of importance on the starts Seattle gets out of Woo and Castillo, even after Kirby makes his expected return in the series opener in Houston next Thursday. Both Woo and Castillo handled the Yankees’ offense, which has statistically been MLB’s best across the board so far, incredibly well earlier this week, combining to go 12.1 innings while striking out 12, walking two (both on Castillo), and allowing just one earned run (given up by Castillo) on 10 hits.
Woo will face the Padres while Castillo gets the White Sox, then both will pitch in the Astros series. Getting deep in those starts will almost be as important as the number of runs they allow with zero off-days to break up the road trip, the volatility of the other three starters, and the probability that Kirby will be on some kind of pitch limit in his season debut, which all could have a major negative impact on a Mariners bullpen that has already thrown the fifth-most innings of any relief unit in the sport this year.
The Mariners must rediscover their offensive formula
Yeah I know, “duh,” but while the pitching was wildly inconsistent on the 1-5 homestand, the biggest concern coming out of that stretch was the regression of the Mariners’ offense. Seattle isn’t built to win many games in which they score three or fewer runs as long as Gilbert, Miller, and Kirby are down/not pitching up to expectations, which was put on full display over the last six games in which they scored more than three just once — in an 11-5 blowout loss to the Yankees. That, of course, wasn’t an issue for the Mariners during their nine-series win streak, and perhaps leaving T-Mobile Park for a while will help them find their groove once again.
The question is: where will they get the production from? At their best this year, they not only reaped the rewards of Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco’s hot starts, but they also got above-average support from the bottom-half of their lineup. On the homestand, however, Mariners hitters batting six through nine in the order went 12-for-83 (.145 average) while striking out 36 times. This regression was to be expected, but it unfortunately did not coincide with the top of the order picking up the slack. J.P. Crawford only collected four hits in 22 at-bats while Polanco finally came down to Earth a bit with just three hits in 17 plate appearances.
Julio Rodríguez went a modest 6-for-25 but overall looked the most comfortable at the plate he has all year, plus Raleigh (.263) and Randy Arozarena (.316) had some big moments as well. The Mariners will hope those three can build upon that on the road, and there’s really no better time for the club’s stars to start playing like stars.
